2012 election: Is Ben Nelson in trouble?

Posted by: ST on December 29, 2009 at 11:16 am

Rasmussen has some troubling numbers for Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) in the aftermath of his healthcare “reform” vote sellout:

The good news for Senator Ben Nelson is that he doesn’t have to face Nebraska voters until 2012.

If Governor Dave Heineman challenges Nelson for the Senate job, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows the Republican would get 61% of the vote while Nelson would get just 30%. Nelson was reelected to a second Senate term in 2006 with 64% of the vote.

Nelson’s health care vote is clearly dragging his numbers down. Just 17% of Nebraska voters approve of the deal their senator made on Medicaid in exchange for his vote in support of the plan. Overall, 64% oppose the health care legislation, including 53% who are Strongly Opposed. In Nebraska, opposition is even stronger than it is nationally.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters in the state believe that passage of the legislation will hurt the quality of care, and 62% say it will raise costs.

The House and Senate have passed different versions of the health care legislation and now will try to agree on a plan to pass early in 2010. Because every Democratic vote is required to pass the legislation in the Senate, Nelson’s vote is essential. If Nelson votes to block final passage of the health care plan, he would still trail Heineman but would be in a much more competitive situation.

When survey respondents were asked how they would vote if Nelson blocks health care reform, 47% still pick Heneman while 37% would vote to keep the incumbent in office. Twenty percent (20%) of those who initially said they’d vote for Heineman say they’d switch to supporting Nelson. Another six percent (6%) of Heineman supporters say they’re not sure what they’d do if Nelson stops the health care plan from becoming law.

Obama’s job approval rating in Nebraska stands at 38%, not exactly surprising, considering he didn’t even come close to winning the state in 2008 (McCain got 57% of the vote there). Obama has stated in the past that he would rather have some form of healthcare “reform” pass even at the expense of a possible second presidential term. If these numbers for Nelson hold up over the next two years, sounds like our fearless leader is willing to take a few vulnerable Democrats in the House and Senate with him.

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11 Responses to “2012 election: Is Ben Nelson in trouble?”

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  1. Carlos says:

    Nelson ought to be arrested and thrown out of the Senate for accepting a bribe (exactly the same, if I recall, as what “Cold Cash” Jefferson did recently.) Reid should be arrested and thrown out of the Senate for bribing a government official.

    Oh, my bad. I forgot, our elected officials who make the laws don’t have to follow them.

  2. Mwalimu Daudi says:

    Rasmussen is wrong in this respect. Technically Nelson cannot vote to block passage of the bill anymore. He can vote against the final bill when it comes up for a vote in the Senate (after a House-Senate conference committee has fashioned its own version), but that’s all he can do.

    I suspect that this was Nelson’s thinking all along. Wring a few concessions out of Reid (which will probably not make it to the final version created by the conference committee) to look good to the voters of Nebraska, or at least mollify their anger a bit. Vote to allow passage of the bill, which will sooth the tender feelings of at least some of the genocidal maniacs who comprise the Democrat Party’s base and perhaps head off a Ned Lamont-style primary challenge in 2012. Then make a public show of voting against the final bill so he can pull a Pilate and say, “My hands are clean!” Depending on how the public views socialized medicine in 2012, Nelson can say he voted (pick one of the following) for/against it.

    And the GOP? If history is any guide, they will be too chicken—- to run an effective campaign against him.

  3. Bill says:

    Right on the mark Mwalimu – no doubt Nelson will try to work both sides of the street at the same time after viewing this latest poll. I’ll bet he does vote against the final bill, as you said, to trick the conservatives in Nebraska into thinking he’s still watching out for them. So many of these politicians don’t have the guts to take a solid, clear stand on any serious issue and face the consequences like real Statesmen would.

    I have more respect for politicians who take a solid stand on an issue, even if it is wrong, than I have for those who use magic to make it seem to both sides of an issue they are supporting their views.

  4. MarkJ says:

    Obama has finally kept his campaign promise when it comes to “uniting the country”:

    Namely, all of us–left, right, and center–are now unified in our hatred of Obama’s abortion of a health care bill.

    Ben Nelson can do his “Aaron Slick from Punkin Crick” shtick all he wants, but I doubt even that’ll save him in 2012. If “Gentle Ben” is assuming Nebraskans will forgive and forget as usual, he’ll no doubt be shocked when they collectively tell him, “Not this time, pal.”

    And here’s another reason why the leftists increasingly despise the bill Nelson voted/didn’t vote for: they know not if, but when, this legislation morphs into a biblical-scale f***-up, they’ll never be taken seriously by the American public again. In military history terms, the American Left is facing the real possibility of a “political Waterloo on steroids”.

    Indeed, not a few leftists now realize that Obama is an apres moi le deluge type: if he goes down with the ship, then he’ll do his damndest to also take his crew with him to Davy Jones’ Locker. And Ben Nelson likely knows this better than anybody right now.

    Next year will be interesting, to say the least.

  5. Great White Rat says:

    MD and Bill are right. Nelson will count on (1) hoping most voters forget about this by 2012 and (2) fooling those who do remember by pointing to his final vote on the measure, which wil be a meaningless “No” vote.

    In other words, he will say “I voted for ObamaCare before I voted against it”. And we all know how well that worked last time a leftist politician tried that strategy.

  6. randyg45 says:

    As others have noted, BN will no doubt try to paly sides of the street, walk the middle of the road, play both ends of the rope against the middle, and sling mud while claiming the high ground.
    To no avail.
    If this cluster of a bill becomes law, 2010 nd 2012 should both be all about the repeal and/or the de-funding.
    Imagine a new Contract with America the (Republican) signatories of which start every speech and debate with their left hand on a Bible and their right hand raised to God saying: “I do solemnly swear that if elected it will be my purpose and focus to repeal and/or nullify Federal Law Number 193847WTHeck?Over, commonly known as Obabmacare. To this end I further swear on my life, my fortune, and my sacred honor that I will not vote to pass any bill that funds any part of Obamacare save Medicare. So help me God”
    Majority House, guaranteed.

  7. poptoy says:

    Ben Nelson can KISS his career goodbye. :((

  8. Dale says:

    He had two chances to kill it and he did not!!!
    He will never be reelected to anything he is historyl-)