The next war in Lebanon will be a big one

Posted by: Phineas on January 21, 2011 at 4:20 pm

**Posted by Phineas

The Lebanese government collapsed last week when the ministers belonging to Hizbullah, the Shiite terrorist organization founded by Iran and patronized by Syria (itself an Iranian client), withdrew from the Cabinet of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in what amounts to a soft coup. Regardless of the publicly stated reasons given by Hizbullah, the real reason is to create a crisis to distract from looming indictments that will, when unsealed, likely accuse the organization of assassinating PM Hariri’s father, then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Michael Totten reports today that the government crisis in Lebanon has taken a turn for the worse, as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has endorsed Hizbullah and the Syrian regime, likely to protect himself and his people. This renders a Hizbullah takeover all but inevitable, which, Totten believes, makes a war that will devastate Lebanon much more likely:

Everybody in Lebanon needs to understand something: Israel is more likely than ever to target the entire country during the next round of conflict. Not since 1948 has Israel fought a war against the Lebanese government; its wars in Lebanon have always been waged against terrorist organizations that were beyond the control of the state.

But if Hezbollah leads the government, the government will be a legitimate target. That’s how it works. Regime-change in Lebanon would have been an insane policy with Hariri’s March 14 coalition in charge, but it won’t be if Hezbollah is calling the shots.

The next war will almost certainly be bloodier than the last.

And why is that war inevitable, in my estimation? Because Hizbullah has never, ever been just about “justice” for the Shiites of Lebanon, who were traditionally among the country’s lower classes. Since its foundation by Iran, Hizbullah has been dedicated fanatically to jihad and the destruction of Israel. If they showed almost no restraint before, what makes anyone think they will in the future, once they control the levers of government and the country becomes an Iranian satrapy in all but name? The entire Lebanese state will be bent towards jihad against Israel — and against us. (See also)

If I lived in Lebanon, I would seriously consider taking the next plane out and never coming back.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

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2 Responses to “The next war in Lebanon will be a big one”

Comments

  1. bill glass says:

    Israel needs a stuxnet bug for radical Islamists…probably working on it even now.

  2. Dana says:

    Our esteemed guest host wrote:

    If I lived in Lebanon, I would seriously consider taking the next plane out and never coming back.

    You mean you’d have waited this long? The smart ones got out thirty years ago!

    But, as Hamas are starting to find out in Gaza, being the actual government brings with it responsibilities that as just a terrorist organization they never had: the streets have to be fixed, the garbage picked up, the water supply maintained, etc. If Hezbollah takes over what passes for a government in Lebanon, they’ll find that they have more things to occupy their minds than just shooting at Israel.