Good News: Barack Obama will find NC much more challenging in 2012

Posted by: ST on April 24, 2012 at 2:12 pm

The Politico has an interesting story up today on the uphill challenges Barack Obama will face in the (new) swing state of North Carolina that he did not face in 2008 (hat tip):

North Carolina represented the high-water mark for the great Obama wave in 2008 — but he’s swimming against the tide there in 2012.

No state better illustrates the challenge Barack Obama faces in trying to consolidate the historic gains of his 2008 campaign at a time when hope, change and optimism have been supplanted by anger, skepticism and disillusionment.

It’s not merely that fewer than 45 percent of state voters approve of the job performance of the president who’s set to land there Tuesday, or that the state’s unemployment rate is pushing double digits. Or that both houses of the state Legislature flipped from blue to red in 2010.

Or even that a former top state Democratic official recently resigned amid accusations he sexually harassed a male staffer.

Obama’s Achilles Tarheel is the general lack of enthusiasm, especially among younger voters, that threatens to reverse his historic win in 2008, depriving him of a key part of his own map and imperiling his party’s tenuous foothold in the upper South.

[…]

Obama will deliver a speech on the iconic UNC Chapel Hill campus Tuesday, part of a three-state swing to pitch rate reductions on student loans. It’s an appeal to a critical bloc of young voters in North Carolina — tens of thousands of them in the state’s Research Triangle.

IOW, he’ll be attempting to – you got it – buy this state’s younger voters, just like he did in 2008.  Why?

But for once, demographics aren’t on Obama’s side. The number of young Democrats registered to vote in the state has shrunk by nearly three times Obama’s victory margin; 40,000 of them have fallen off state voter rolls in the state since 2008, a Tufts University study in December found.

Support amongst black voters in this state may be off as well, for a variety of reasons:

And it’s unclear if African-Americans will be as energized as they were last time. They have been particularly hard hit by the recession. The unemployment rate for African-Americans in North Carolina was nearly double the state average at 18.9 percent in the last quarter of 2012, according to a study by the Economic Policy Institute. That rate is the seventh highest in the nation.

As the Politico article notes, officials from both parties in this state predict a tight race, but I think if Romney and his campaign can hammer home Obama’s dismal record on the economy – not to mention his warped priorities as President (like putting nationalized healthcare first over the economy), as well as devote a lot of time to laying out his own economic game-plan, which has been vague up to this point, he’ll have a very good chance at turning this economically  hard-hit state red again.  In fact, the liberal Public Policy Polling outfit, which has done the majority of polling on Romney vs. Obama in this state, has never shown Obama ahead of Romney by more than 5 points – and most of the time it’s been no more than 3 points, which I think is the MOE.

I remember the sickening feeling I had in 2008 after finding out that not only had Obama won the presidency, but he had turned this state blue again.  I am going to do my part in hopes of turning this state red again as part of an overall effort to win the WH back for the GOP, and if you’re a North Carolina resident, I hope you’ll join me.

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10 Responses to “Good News: Barack Obama will find NC much more challenging in 2012”

Comments

  1. Carlos says:

    Yeah, ST, there’s a lot to be said for turning NC blue again.

    NC, as most of the south, was run by the donkeys for over a century, during which time Jim Crow took a stranglehold and the KKK was allowed by the jackass establishment to not only run the affairs de noir but in open daylight, too. Those are real good reason to turn the state back to the Dems.

    Why, if I were an African-American living in NC, I’d just be waiting giddily for the chance to put those chains on again, and live in fear in the night, and be careful ’bout what restaurants to go into again, and where to sit on a bus! Man, talk about the good ol’ days!

    The sad part is Duh-1 will probably still get over 65% of the black vote. But 100% of the stupid vote, that’s for sure.

  2. I may regret writing this in seven months, but right now I think that Obama is going to do a lot worse than most people think and Romney much better.

    Obama was a great candidate in 2008, but that’s when he had no record to defend and all he had to do was give speeches. It was all smoke and mirrors and the country was vulnerable at the time.

    Criticize Romney all you like, the man is a smart campaigner who will not repeat the mistakes Bob Dole or John McCain made. His war room is up and running and on top of events. With only a few exceptions (no one being perfect) he won’t stay stupid things, but will stay on message, relentlessly attacking Obama but without going overboard.

  3. Chris in NC says:

    “40,000 of them have fallen off state voter rolls” that’s nothing. The union halls, liberal churches and all have already manufactured several times that in fake ballots that will be “suddenly discovered” in a recount.

  4. Drew the Infidel says:

    @Tom The Redhunter — I wholeheartedly agree. Obama was a media invention in 2008, something that will not happen again. Voters will wake up and smell the dog crap, a phenomenon that will be reflected in the vote totals. When it comes to touting his record he can always point to . . . well, he’ll think of something, I’m sure.

  5. Ken66 says:

    Seeing his track record before running (do-nothing; failure), his track record while running (nuthin’ but finger-pointing), and his current record of one dismal failure after another, I ask you: “If Obama is the answer, how stupid was the question.”

    Good to see that people are finally waking up.

  6. Carlos says:

    Don’t forget,though, Tom and Drew, that ANY criticism of Obama will be portrayed as racism by the LSM. Not only will it be portrayed as racism, the charge will be screamed 24/7 until election day, and Obama is counting on the Goebbels’ line of “Tell a lie often enough…”

    The only hope with that is that we’ve already gotten 3-1/2 years of the charge and people (the mushminds who voted for him in the first place) are starting to get reeeeeally tired of it all and maybe waking up to what kind of sleazebucket operation he is and runs.

  7. Lorica says:

    Gov. Romney should, IMHO, hook up with Con. Paul Ryan, and hammer out somethings regarding the economy over the summer. Then in Oct. have Ryan introduce a bill, Romney can then run on this whole time telling us he is prepared to hit the ground running. That as soon as he is President he will sign this bill that will be good for ALL Americans, not just a chosen few. The audacity of it, to me it is a bold move, abit gutsier than Romney has been in the past, but would be a good sign that he is forward thinking, and moving fast. The whole world knows it is harder to hit a moving target, and will show that he is going to keep his campaign promises. – Lorica

  8. Drew the Infidel says:

    Q: What do you call someone who voted for Obhammud in 2008 but will not vote for him this time?

    A: A racist.

    You see, it doesn’t take much, does it? I think my 7th grade English teacher called an overworked word like racist a “cliche”. Or was it “trite”?

  9. Great White Rat says:

    I agree completely with Tom(@2) and Drew(@4). Further to Drew’s point, Obama has no record of accomplishment, so I fully expect them to raise one diversionary issue after the other until November.

    The OWS camps that Pelosi fawned over were a trial balloon to see if enough Americans would buy into the class envy and hatred meme. That blew up in their faces when the Occupiers acted as leftists predictably do: irresponsible, greedy, and violent, and immature. Not too many Americans were won over by their Nazi-endorsed, lice-infested rape camps.

    Since then they’ve trotted out the “War On Women” tactic (somewhat successful, but stymied for now since Hillary Rosen blurted out what they really think about many women) and the “Trayvon” gambit to rally black support by appealing to racial animosity.

    Expect others, each one targeting some demographic that Obama desperately needs, such as the youth or Hispanic vote, until election day. The one thing they absolutely will NOT talk about is any aspect of the economy. If the GOP is smart, they’ll adopt James Carville’s slogan from 1992 and use it relentlessly.

  10. Carlos says:

    Well, GWR, wait until the SCOTUS upholds the AZ 1070 law. That’s a built-in present to the jackasses if ever there was one.

    Makes no difference that, at worst, the vote will be 7-2 in favor of upholding the law (but probably 8-1, maybe even 9-0), Obhammud will jump on that as the first sign of the coming Apocalypse.

    ‘Course, the Republicans, as is their quadrennial wont, will give the donkeys four or five more issues on a silver platter, too.

    Never in my memory has an administration been as vulnerable to defeat as this one, but don’t count on the Republican establishment on helping themselves to any great extent. If they did, now THAT would be a surprise.