SHOCK: Poll suggests Obama is losing the support of black voters in NC

And not just any pollster, but Public Policy Polling – a noted left-wing polling outfit (hat tip):

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama. Overall, Romney has a 48 percent to 46 percent lead on Obama in the crucial swing state.

Obama received 95 percent of the support from African-Americans in North Carolina in the 2008 election, compared with just 5 percent for Republican nominee John McCain.

In PPP’s May poll, Obama received 87 percent of the African-American vote to Romney’s 11 percent.

All of Obama’s numbers with African-Americans are sliding. His approval rating is down from 86 percent to 77 percent. Romney’s favorability, meanwhile, has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent.

Jim Williams, a polling analyst at PPP, said it could be “statistical noise” that comes with a small sample (only about 200 African-Americans were surveyed). But he said it was not something the agency has “ever seen before.”

“Seventy-something percent is obviously low,” Williams told Business Insider. “It’s not something we’ve ever seen before. It’s definitely something we’re going to monitor.”

As I’ve written before, Obama barely won this state in 2008 – and he won it largely on his efforts to get young people and black people to the polls.  If he loses even a small percentage of the black vote alone, it’s bad, bad news for his chances to win this state again.  He’s also in trouble with independents:

If polling numbers in this state are any indication of things to come, Obama’s in for another battle in North Carolina come fall. His chances of winning here, as they did in 2008, will rely heavily on black voter turn out. Here in North Carolina, black voter turnout in 2008 was 6% higher than it had been in previous presidential election years. As I’ve said before, if he loses even one or two percent of the black vote that came out for him in 2008 – and he very well could as a result of his “coming out” in support of gay marriage, that will make the battle for NC even tougher for him.

Ultimately, though, people in this state – as they will in all others – will vote based largely on the economy, and privately some Democrat strategists are worried about the polling numbers from independents in several key states who look to be turning towards Romney on the issue of the economy:

Let’s also not forget the potential problems he’ll have with the youth vote and their waning enthusiasm:

President Obama’s visit to college campuses in swing states today [April 24] reminds us that at the end of the day, campaigns are about math. And for Obama a strong turnout by younger voters is part of the winning equation.

A recent Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll found that while the president enjoys a substantial, 60 percent to 34 percent lead, against Mitt Romney, among young voters, Obama’s “enthusiasm has taken a nosedive,” according to The Hill newspaper.

The Hill’s Amie Parnes notes: “In 2008, 63 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds took a big interest in the election. Four years later, 45 percent have the same level of interest, reflecting the most sizable drop in one of the major voting groups. The falling poll numbers come as data compiled by The Associated Press show that 53 percent of college graduates are unemployed or currently have a job that doesn’t meet their qualifications.”

When all is said and done and election day is here, I suspect all key Democrat voting blocs will fall in line and once again vote for President Obama, if for nothing else for the possibility of him getting to nominate another Supreme Court Justice. But as I said earlier, in battleground states, just a few percentage points can be huge and if Romney is able to peel 2 or 3% off of any key voting bloc for Obama – whether it be Hispanics, black people, the youth vote -, or if that percentage decides simply not to vote, it will have the potential of devastating our celebrity President’s chances of becoming re-elected.

Not to steal from McDonald’s or anything but … I’m lovin’ it. ;)

(Video) A sign of real Hope and Change?

**Posted by Phineas

Busy day today, but I wanted to share with you this latest Afterburner, in which Bill Whittle compares the choices made in recent elections in France and Wisconsin, and finds cause for hope in the Land of Cheese:

On a smaller scale Bill could also have taken heart from recent elections in San Diego and San Jose, where voters overwhelmingly approved reforms to public pensions in order to save their cities’ finances. The margins were large enough that I’m certain there were pensioners and near-pensioners who voted for reform, in contrast to the self-deluded voters of France and Greece.

When one thinks about it, this global debt crisis may yet be proof again of American exceptionalism.

We hope.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

Quote of the Day: Obama on #WIrecall absence

Via Chris Stirewalt at Fox News:

“Well, you know, the truth of the matter is that as President of the United States, I’ve got a lot of responsibilities. I was supportive of Tom and have been supportive of Tom. Obviously, you know, I would have loved to have seen a different result.”

— President Obama in an interview with WBAY, the ABC affiliate in Green Bay, Wis., explaining why he didn’t campaign for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Democratic candidate in last week’s Wisconsin recall election.

Today is a pretty typical day for President Obama: four fundraisers, a visit to a swing state and then a late arrival back at the White House.

The rest of the week looks to be pretty much the same, with a Thursday campaign speech in Ohio and some more fundraising already on the schedule.

The president is always the president, and Obama may be spending his transit time updating his kill list or haggling with his European counterparts about the next round of bailouts. But there never has been a president who, to the public eye, was more consumed so early in the year with his re-election effort.

The blitz of fundraisers and swing-state visits started nine months ago and has continued unabated. This makes his defense of his decision to shun Tom Barrett, the Democratic nominee in the Wisconsin recall vote last week, even more curious.

“I’ve got a lot of responsibilities,” Obama said in answer to a question from a reporter from Green Bay, one of a handful of swing-state journalists granted four-minute, stopwatch-timed interviews with Obama on Monday.

Those responsibilities apparently include dinners with Sarah Jessica Parker and Wall Street tycoons, but not a trip to Waukesha to help out Barrett.

What the President doesn’t want to tell anyone is the truth (not exactly a surprise for this truth-challenged administration): That it’s highly unlikely his appearance in Wisconsin in support of Mayor Barrett would have made much, if any, of a difference. I suspect there was internal polling done by Democrats on the Wisconsin recall election and that what they saw was enough to get them to convince the President not to pay a visit. And even if their internal polling didn’t show anything like that, Obama’s failure to successfully campaign in the MA Senate race that Scott Brown (R) eventually won and the NJ Governor’s race where Corzine (D) ran for re-election and lost were (obvious) indicators enough that when you have a competitive race and a President whose unpopularity is growing with the American public, you shouldn’t get him (or her) involved in heavily campaigning for “your guy” – if at all.

Not only that, but this year is shaping up to be the year of “uphill battles” for not only this President but his also his party. Adding one more failure to his long list of such, especially one so high profile, would not be smart election-year strategy for any Democrat in a competitive race.

Still, the bad side of me would have loved to see him actively campaign for Barrett, both in Wisconsin and outside …. schadenfreude and all that. :D