Oregon in play? Really??

Posted by: Phineas on August 27, 2012 at 2:01 pm

**Posted by Phineas

Normally I’d call whoever said that crazy, but it is Karl Rove, after all:

A lot of the political analysis you hear from partisans is predictable. But sometimes they surprise.

That was the case when Karl Rove spoke at a Politico breakfast event in Tampa this morning. Two examples:

(1) When asked what state, now that Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be in play, would emerge next on the target list, he cited Oregon. He noted correctly that the state House is ied 30-30, Republicans almost captured the governorship in 2010 and tha[t] there’s a left wing constituency disappointed in Obama. He surely remembers that in 2000 Ralph Nader won 5.04% in Oregon and tha[t] Al Gore carried it by only 46.92% to 46.52%.

To be honest, I’d expect Oregon to flip about the same time as California, which would also be when the sun goes out. But, much as I thought of the possibility of Obama losing Illinois, the fact that these questions are being raised at all indicates the depth of the problem Obama faces in his reelection race: he may have to spend a lot of money defending what should be his core states, rather than in the battlefield states where Romney is genuinely competitive. Given that Obama is already having trouble raising enough money to keep up with Romney, spreading what cash he has more thinly could cause a real problem come election day. While I’d love to see a “Red” breakout on the West Coast, I’ll settle for making Team Obama scramble to patch a leaky dam.

Read the rest; there are some interesting observations about the Hispanic vote, too.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

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4 Responses to “Oregon in play? Really??”


  1. arcman46 says:

    Oregon and Washington are very similar insofar as the Left has a stronghold all through the I5 corridor. They own Seattle and Portland as well as several of the other towns around them. Conservatives are strong almost everywhere on the east side of the Cascades. For Oregon to be in play, the Conservatives need to get out the vote and hope the masses on the West side of the Cascades pretty much stay at home.

  2. Drew the Infidel says:

    There are some very solid reasons why Obhammud is in the unenviable position of playing a defensive game all over the map. Like the last Shah of Iran he has alienated a large segment of the voting public one constituency at a time. The Catholics are a wash after the shabby treatment he gave them as well as the Jewish vote for the despicable way he had Netanyahu use the rear WH entrance while the Chinese president could regally walk through the front door as if he owned the place. Oh wait, he does.

  3. Marilyn says:

    Oregon is awash in California ex-pats. Most are in the major urban areas (yes, we do have a couple of those here) and university towns.

    Rove is far too optimistic. I am seeing too many Obama 2012 stickers around here to think this year will be any different than in the past; Oregon will remain left-leaning.

  4. Carlos says:

    Being a native Oregonian born-and bred, and having lived on both sides of the Cascades (I live in Moscow-on-the-Willamette now, also known as Eugene), I can tell you that the only way Obhammud loses Oregon is if most of the city of Portland is either asleep all election day or is wiped out by a nuclear attack. Outside metro Portland, it is known as “The State of Portland” because its population is large enough to control nearly everything voted on statewide.

    And it wouldn’t make any difference if Repubs did take control of the House here. There are enough RINOs, especially those “in charge” of the state party, that they’ll do the bidding of whatever the Portland jackasses can think up to interfere with citizens’ lives.

    And the biggest problem? Californians who fled to get away from the ever-hungry socialists they themselves voted in, who are voting in the exact same pieces of crap here! Ignorance is fixable with education; stupidity, thy name is “Californian.”