There has been a lot of talk recently as to the poll numbers that are suddenly showing Obama with a distinct edge in battleground states. Specifically, the chatter is that the heavy oversampling of Democrats is what is giving our celebrity President the appearance of being in the clear lead in the final five weeks leading up to the November elections.
From what I’ve read of the various polling data, that appears to be the case in some instances. In others, not so much. While I’m sure there is no coordinated conspiracy on the part of the MSM and the polling outfits they use, there’s no question in my mind that they are in full “re-elect Obama” mode and are using the questionable numbers to hammer Mitt Romney, blaming his 47% comments – among others – for his supposed “dramatic drop” in the polls. At the same time, they search for “clues” that the RomRy campaign are “re-launching”, which to the mainstream media equates to acknowledgement that the GOP ticket’s message isn’t resonating with voters and as a result they are trying to switch gears.
While RomRy certainly have their work cut out for them on messaging and convincing voters they are a better choice to put America on the road to recovery than O’Biden – bad polling or not – I’d like to address the frustration and discouragement of those who are reading these polling numbers and who are resigning themselves to the media narrative that Romney and Ryan can’t win.
As I noted yesterday on Twitter, I heard from several friends and family members via email, text, or phone expressing to me deep concern about Romney’s “falling numbers.” This is the intended effect, of course, for the MSM – who are notorious for trying to manufacture horse races the closer it gets to election time. I told everyone I talked to to not get discouraged, to not let what they were hearing cause them to start believing this election was hopeless. Because it’s not. Not even close.
We don’t need the input of veteran pollsters to aid us in coming to that conclusion, do we?
Four years ago, Barack Obama rode into the office in a blaze of glory, basking in the support of a compliant lapdog media, reliable Democrat supporters, actual Republicans in Name Only, and independents who desperately wanted to believe he was the agent of hopey change he made himself out to be. The youth vote, the black vote, and Independents were particularly energized for candidate Obama, and they carried him to victory in several key states – including North Carolina, where he saw his smallest margin of victory for flipped states.
But reality has set in for some of these folks, and there are numerous reports – which I have documented here – that suggest the youth vote edge is gone, enthusiasm is lacking, and that there are enough black voters dissatisfied with Obama’s stances on various social issues like abortion and gay marriage to perhaps make his life very difficult in key states he and Romney know they must win. Some independents are experiencing wake up calls and understand now that the guy Obama painted himself out to be on the surface during the 2008 campaign is not the one who sits in the Oval Office.
In short, there are cracks at the seams of many of his core groups, and these cracks are just wide enough for the Romney/Ryan campaign to swoop in and try to convince even a small but significant percentage of these voters to come over to the GOP side. In many states, it won’t take much for RomRy to win – and I say that as someone who does NOT believe the polling data that relies heavily on the belief that Obama’s supporters will come out in “record numbers” for this election. I’m just not seeing it.
Yes, Romney/Ryan have an uphill climb ahead of them but we knew going in that whoever the eventual nominee was going to be was going to face seemingly insurmountable odds in defeating the empty chair in the White House. We also knew in advance that the official campaigns for both the GOP nominee and the GOP itself were not always going to be on point, and frequently make agonizing, frustrating mistakes. We also knew that the poll numbers would seesaw back and forth, and that the closer it came to people going to the actual polls to vote that the media would kick into an unprecedented overdrive to push their guy over the top.
This is what they do.
What can we do, in turn? Put polling numbers in the back of your mind. Don’t completely ignore them but don’t let them be your guide post as to how much effort you put into helping the GOP win the White House, Congressional races, etc. Whether it appears we’re ahead by 10, or down by 20 in any given state: DO.NOT.GIVE.UP. Keep pushing forward. In fact, the words “I quit” should not be in the DNA of any conservative, any Republican, any Blue Dog Democrat or independent who gives a damn about the dangerous direction this country is taking and who wants it to change course. Simply put, our focus needs to be on continuing to promote our conservative ideals, praising and defending RomRy where necessary, pushing back and hard against Democrat/media lies about either of them, and absolutely destroying false narratives painted by the Obama campaign and their allies in the press.
We have much more of a chance of winning enough states to carry us over the top if we utilize this strategy than we do if we mope around at this stage in the game thinking that what the polls say now means we’re doomed in November.
The choice is yours.
Phineas butts in: 100% agreement with my blog-buddy on this. Let me also point you to a great article at Ricochet by Rick Wilson: “Behind the Magic Trick.” Here’s an excerpt:
Once you know the secret behind a magic trick, it loses its appeal.
No matter how carefully crafted, no matter how spectacular the effect, no matter how much skill goes into its design, once you see the wires, or know where the secret compartment is, the trick stops being magic and becomes nothing more than engineering.
The trick the Obama campaign has executed beautifully this month is to demoralize and dismay the GOP base. A combination of a very, very, very heavy TV buy in swing states (pay attention, because this is a rabbit they can’t pull out every week), a fierce assault on Romney at every turn (abetted by a cooperative press that loves the taste of blood) and a series of public polls that have played into a self-reinforcing narrative that Obama is inevitable.
The trick is a good one, and to judge from the wailing and lamentations on our side, it’s been working.
But it’s just a trick.
Let’s pull back the curtain, shall we?
Read it all, and take heart. Remember, they want you to give up.