Romney closing on Obama in… Michigan??

Posted by: Phineas on October 18, 2012 at 1:07 pm

**Posted by Phineas

Signs of an electoral apocalypse?

A new statewide poll shows a tight race between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney, as well as growing enthusiasm among Republicans for their nominee.

Released Wednesday, the poll of 600 likely voters showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan, 44.2 percent to 40.5 percent, but Romney also within the sampling error of 4 percentage points — meaning it’s a tight race.

The poll was conducted by the Michigan polling firm Denno Research and commissioned by Grand Rapids-based Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which also has offices in Lansing. Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research, also is chief of staff to state Sen. Virgil Smith Jr., D-Detroit.

Note that last: this is a Democratic poll. Maybe the partial nationalization of the auto industry isn’t as popular as assumed?


In addition, the poll found that Romney had a 6 percent lead over Obama with independent voters — 36 percent to 30 percent — strengthening Romney’s chances of closing the gap.

This is crucial: Obama may or may not have “fired up” his core Democratic supporters after the last debate, but it’s the unaligned who provided him with much of his margin of victory in 2008. If Romney, who’s already enjoying growing Republican enthusiasm according to the poll, is stealing the independents, then we may find Team Obama having to spend its scarcest resource, campaign time, not as much as they’d like in genuine battleground states, but in states that should be safe for them, such as Minnesota.

Looks to me like they’re the ones playing defense, falling back to their second line of fortifications while denying rumors that they’re abandoning their outer works in North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Romney still isn’t likely to win Minnesota or Michigan (though I predict a red Pennsylvania), but that more and more polls in Blue states are narrowing has to worry them with the election so near; that they spend any time or money in those places at all is a visible sign of this.

Or consider it another way: when was the last time Romney-Ryan campaigned in Texas?

Maybe an electoral strategy based on Big Bird, binders, and Tagg Romney’s violent urges doesn’t resonate with the American public?

What. A. Shock.

via Hot Air

UPDATE: Beware of irrational exuberance, but Gallup has Romney up 52-45 in likely voters. Analyst Sean Trende is reasonably skeptical. But it sure is pretty.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

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4 Responses to “Romney closing on Obama in… Michigan??”


  1. Drew the Infidel says:

    As noted, the Obhammued strategy is a distasteful one of personal attack while Romney attempts to elevate the discussion to a bit higher level. When the campaign is over he should send Obhammud a bill for all the tutorials he has conducted on being President in the context of the debates. Or more precisley, great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, and small minds discuss people.

  2. I’m always skeptical of polls. Honestly, everything has been biased. There is so much liberal media and polls out there. I can’t believe they get away with this!
    Even the moderators (especially the last two women) were incredibly biased and unfair in their handling of the debates.
    Wow, where would Obama be without all the unfair help and cheating??

  3. Kate in MI says:

    living in Michigan-just 17 miles from the ‘fun filled’ city of Flint, our state is becoming more like a war zone. Detroit is gangsta heaven, and the possibly soon to be striking police dept. is posting signs to ‘enter at your own risk’.
    even though we have a self proclaimed ‘nerd’ as governor, he says he doesn’t want the ‘drama’ of right to work-even though Government Motors is no longer the presence it used to be.
    Too many Michiganders say they will never buy any GM car-ever.
    And the way the Obama administration and the UAW screwed over the Delphi salried retirees is a prime example of union over-reaching in our state.

  4. mudguy says:

    Polls are only good for flags and dancing.