#Decision2012: Random Election Night Eve Thoughts

Posted by: ST on November 5, 2012 at 7:41 pm

VoteCan’t believe tomorrow is the day.

If you’re like me, you didn’t early vote and will line up at the polls first thing in the morning. Here in NC, the polls open at 6:30 and I plan on being at mine at 6, to get it out of the way … and to hopefully avoid the ambush of liberal candidate volunteers standing as close as they legally can to the polling place shoving literature in the hands of people who don’t want to be rude.   Every time I go in the afternoon, I receive what amounts to a folder full of flyers on behalf of candidates for whom I will never vote.

Maybe not if I vote in the early a.m. We shall see … assuming the Lord doesn’t have other plans, and assuming I actually get up at 4:30 to get ready for work, eat breakfast, and head out earlier than normal.

As far as how NC will swing tomorrow in the Presidential race, things have looked pretty good for Mitt Romney since the beginning of October. He has not trailed in any poll since the beginning of that month, and has been in just a  handful of ties.   Here are the final NC numbers.  I’m cautiously optimistic that this state will flip back to red again but it will all depend on – you guessed it – turn out.   Team Obama made some last minute sales pitches here over the last several days, with Jill Biden visiting Huntersville and Asheville on Friday, Bill Clinton in Raleigh on Sunday, and Michelle Obama here in Charlotte earlier today. Political junkies will note that then-candidate Barack Obama himself had an election eve campaign rally in Charlotte back in 2008.   If Romney/Ryan end up losing tomorrow, I’d still like for this state to go red again in spite of that – it would be a small consolation considering the embarrassment many of us felt after it went to BO in 2008.

In terms of the national landscape it’s one that – for me – is “too close to call.”  Several “battleground states” have tightened up, with some surprisingly coming into play as possible GOP pickups (PA & NH, for example). The more expert prognosticators are putting their reputations on the line with advance predictions of how things will go tomorrow in terms of not just the Presidential race, but also House and Senate races, as well as the Governorships.  The only one I feel reasonably comfortable in calling is the NC Governor’s race. Pat McCrory (R) has had double digit leads over Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton for months now and, barring a last minute surge, McCrory will likely be only the 3rd GOP Governor in this state since 1901.

I have officially stopped looking at election projections, by the way. They are making me crazy.  Something else making me crazy is the fact that we have a third party candidate on the ballot here, as do most other states. Bob Barr (Libertarian) did have an impact on our results here in NC in 2008. He got roughly 25,000 votes.  McCain lost by 14,000, BO’s smallest win margin.

NC Presidential Election Results - 2008 - via the NYT

NC Presidential Election Results – 2008 – via the NYT

Do NOT underestimate the power of third party candidates in close races this year.

On to the notable “down-ticket” races in NC:

The National Republican Congressional Committee is betting on three, and hoping for four.

The GOP-controlled legislature in Raleigh set the table for a rightward shift in the state’s congressional delegation by redrawing several districts to favor Republican candidates.

Two Democrat incumbents – Rep. Heath Shuler in the 11th and Brad Miller in the 13th – decided not to run again, with Republicans favored to take their seats. That leaves two vulnerable Blue Dog Dems: Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th and Mike McIntyre in the 7th, each busy distancing themselves from Obama and highlighting their votes to repeal Obamacare.

If both lose – McIntyre has the better shot at survival – the delegation will go from 7-6 Democratic to 10-3 Republican.

What are things looking like in your state?   What are you seeing and hearing?

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10 Responses to “#Decision2012: Random Election Night Eve Thoughts”

Comments

  1. It is puzzling how so many feel Obhammud has a solid chance at carrying NC when, during the DNC, he could not even generate enough enthusiasm among the faithful to fill a 73,000 seat stadium in Charlotte. The list of issues in this race which include the economy, foreign policy, education, jobs, and health care all read like a collection of items on which Obhammud has failed miserably.

  2. Mwalimu Daudi says:

    In Texas, Romney is going to win big. The MSM/DNC axis has instead been concentrating on a few state races (Texas House, Court of Criminal Appeals, State Board of Education) in an effort to drag a few of their Marxist pals across the finish line. Currenty no Democrat holds statwide office, and that is unlikely to change after tomorrow.

  3. Steve says:

    Know anyone who is undecided? Send them this video – Mitt Romney “Introduction”:

    http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/mitt-romney-introduction.html

  4. Great White Rat says:

    It’s been reasonably quiet here. There’s not much doubt that Obama’s going to win NJ, and Menendez is also likely to be re-elected to the Senate. The most action we’re seeing in my area is for Jon Runyan’s re-election to the House, otherwise some county races are supposed to be competitive. Polls open at 6am here and like ST, I’ll be trying to get that over quickly to avoid any lines and campaign annoyances later in the day.

  5. Carlos says:

    Here in the land of the most easily manipulated voting (remember, it’s not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes), Oregon, I did my civic duty and responsibility tonight and turned in my ballot by hand instead of mailing it in because I don’t trust a unionized postal service to deliver any ballots, let alone one from a conservative enclave in a deep midnight blue state.

    Sure wish they’d go back to real voting instead of cheat-by-mail. At least the jackasses that run nearly every county west of the Cascades would have to be more upfront about vote manipulation.

  6. ST says:

    Carlos, how long has Oregon done it that way and why did they start it?

  7. Dear Santa:

    All I really want for Christmas is a real President.

    Drew

  8. Tom TB says:

    All we need here in Connecticut-Yankee land is a business man and woman; Romney and McMahon. Anybody can call themselves a “community organizer”, and spend other people’s treasure.

  9. Carlos says:

    @ST – It’s been this way for at least twenty years, long enough that I can’t remember when. I do remember it was optional a couple of elections, but “participation” jumped up so radically that the elites decided that was good for “democracy.”

    Of course, “democracy” is another word redefined by the left here, with the new meaning that elections officials will allow Republican votes to count and/or be counted as long as those votes don’t get in the way of putting in socialists in any close race.