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Audacity of Truth
Castro calls in sick, leaving his brother in command
What does all this mean for the future of Cuba? MSNBC’s Robert Windrem speculates:
Fidel Castro is not dead, but unlike other authoritarian regimes, Cuba already has the transition scoped out and the successor annointed: Raul Castro, the president’s younger brother and Cuba’s defense minister.
While there is often discussion and gossip both inside and outside Cuba about who among the next level of officials — Vice President Carlos Lage, Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon — might succeed Fidel Castro, U.S. officials insist that Raul Castro remains the key to any succession. In addition to being the constitutionally designated successor to his brother, the 75-year-old Raul Castro is viewed as a a reluctant leader, one who is “always the better administrator … a good manager, not a great thinker.”
In several wide-ranging interviews over the past decade, U.S. officials from both the diplomatic and intelligence services describe a Raul Castro regime as one having a “very very different character with a need for a support base,” a base that they say is already in place and is both extremely loyal to him and competent. In each case, officials would speak only in return for anonymity.
However, none of that takes away from that fact that he’s a Marxist:
A Raul Castro regime would not abandon the Marxist revolution — Raul Castro was a Marxist before his brother — but is likely to be more pragmatic at least on economic reforms. However, any transition from Fidel to Raul would also be marked by jockeying for power, to be Raul’s successor. Even before this recent crisis, Perez Roque was seen as trying to undermine Alarcon. Other such disputes would no doubt surface.
The streets of Miami might be filled with Cuban-Americans understandably delighted over the possibily that Fidel will either remain too sick to stay in power or die shortly, it remains to be seen what the reaction in Cuba will be to his brother Raul assuming the reins for the time being. I don’t mean to sound like a pessimist, but I don’t hold out much hope that a Raul Castro regime would be much different than a Fidel regime. But who knows? Maybe a Raul Castro regime would be the spark that lights the flame of revolution for new leadership in Cuba.
Time will tell.
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8 Responses to “Castro calls in sick, leaving his brother in command”
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Fidel or Raul…regardless of which one is in charge, nothing will change for the better in Cuba.
More to the point, does anyone seriously think that any of those Miami celebrants are actually going to go back to Cuba, if the opportunity presents itself? Unlikely, unless there’s profit to be made in rebuilding.
- The good news is his brother is the same age as he is. If they handle this per usual for Marxist regimes, it will be weeks after he’s dead before they admit it.
- Bang
The Cubans shouldn’t be so anxious to trade Raul for ol’Castro. Raul is much more radical and revolutionary, and if anything will be a bigger despot and more violently repressive than his brother. Ever notice how often people in these types of countries get all hepped up about this new leader or that new revolutionary person who’s going to save them and it winds up they are far far worse than the person they hated before. Battista was a gem compared to Castro, and the Iranians were all so hot to get rid of the oh so oppressive Shah, and they got the Islamofasciist Ayatolah Kohmmeni in return, who sucked them from a modern society straight back to the 14th century.
Sev – My cuban friends tell me the press is full of it when they make those sorts of statements. Cubans don’t expect the brother to be any better. He’s old and in poor health, so they see this as the beggining of the end they’ve waited so long for, and that’s why they’re celebrating. I get a lot of that from friends from other countries. They’re always amazed at the sort of junk the press makes up to generate controversy and sell papers. A lot of them think the American press are a bunch of lying idiots.
- Bang
Interesting Bang. I’ve lived in Florida all my life, and I remeber Raul being more of a hot brand than his brother, but I certainly don’t think the press is accurate about anything. But he too is older than dirt, so this may well be the beginning of the end for Castro’s Cuba. The upcoming upheaval will undoubtedly not be fun though.
Then again, Bang, remember that these are descendents of the same Cuban’s who were so gung ho thinking that Castro was going to be better than Battista.