Double-digit losses in store for House Dems in 2010 elections?

Posted by: ST on August 31, 2009 at 12:09 pm

The “experts” are saying it’s entirely possible (h/t: Memeorandum):

After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

“Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”

Read the whole thing for more compelling information which suggests that next year could be the year of the beginning of the GOP comeback … provided, of course, that the party stick to its guns in getting back to its core principles, and nailing Obama and his Democrats in the House and Senate on the monstrous healthcare bill, cap and trade, and other policies that will hurt “the little guy” far more than it will help him.

If the party could turn this around next year, it’d be pretty amazing, especially considering that for all intents and purposes right now, it is leaderless.

Read more via Rick Moran, who has a good analysis on various scenarios that could work for the GOP over the next few election cycles, depending on certain factors and how things trend.

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16 Responses to “Double-digit losses in store for House Dems in 2010 elections?”


  1. NC Cop says:

    Possible, yes. Probable, we’ll see.

    Never underestimate the power of a corrupt media. They will go to work for their masters at the DNC, just like they did last year.

    We can only hope that people have seen the REAL B.O. and the REAL democrats.

  2. Jeff says:

    Americans have been on too congress for a couple of years. The MSM will never be able to give cover/spin to hundreds of local congressional races.
    The GOP is hardly leaderless but that is besides the point. The GOP should always be about principals and good solid Reagan principals are perfectly aligned for 2010. Nobody needs to be told to deregulate, de-tax and spend less. Nobody needs to be told to want a strong national security. Every GOP candidate should be able to hammer these themes home everyday for the rest of their careers or they should find another one.

  3. Baklava says:

    1994 part II

  4. Hunter says:

    Whatever…at this time in the last election cycle Hillary was going to be the next President and Obama was an unqualified second bet. I agree with NC Cop that the a corrupt media will pulls it’s weight, and the electorate will again fall for their garbage.

  5. Bill says:

    Oh I think the Democrats will suffer a much greater defeat than imagined at this point. They’ve still got more than a year left to “over reach” and they will continue to set new standards in arrogance as they attempt to shove socialism down the throats of Americans. By next summer, they will probably be so unpopular that many will have to go into the “witness protection plan”. Even their propaganda slaves at NBC, CBS, and ABC news won’t be able to cover for them anymore.

  6. Dennis D says:

    Obama is creating more new conservatives than Reagan did.

  7. Neo says:

    We should hope this guy goes …

    Newly-filed disclosures show that Rangel failed to report at least half a million dollars in assets in 2007. They also show that his net worth is between $1 million and $2.5 million, or about twice what he claimed in 2008.

  8. Baklava says:

    The media helped the Democrats attack Republicans with the “Contract on America” trash. But 1994 happened anyway.

  9. Marilyn says:


    Do we really want a GOP comeback? I don’t think so until we get rid of the liberal component of the party…think Arlen Specter (oh yeah…he moved himself over) and John McCain among many others.

    Until we get more true constitutionalists with a libertarian mindset, we’ll never get the mess in Washington cleaned up.

  10. Great White Rat says:

    It’s way too early to speculate. If the election were held today, yes, the GOP would win back 20-25 seats, but 14 months is forever in politics. The critical factor is this: will the taxpayers and seniors be as dissatisfied in November 2010 as they are today? The administration and its MSM allies have at least a year to either lull them back to sleep or manufacture an October-surprise type crisis to panic the unsophisticated voters into stampeding back to the left.

    And it would help if the GOP would rediscover its backbone and actually go on the offensive against Duh-1 and his cancerous authoritarianism.

  11. mike191 says:

    The power of the “Fourth Estate”, as it shields and promotes the LUNACY of President 44 is a tough hurdle to overcome.However, If more Democrats emulate Harry Reid and his tirade against a local newspaper,then a window of opportunity exists.Moreover, if the Republicans showed the grit that Tea party advocates have in their attacks against this Cabal, the window grows larger for success.

  12. Serfer62 says:

    Ah, but the lasting memories of
    1) January the SSS COLA DOESN”T kick in.
    2) Unemployment remains at about 10%.
    3) Summer fuel prices “rise unexpectidly”
    4) Big Media print continues to plumet
    The DC speculators have no idea what mid-America thinks otherwise this medical crap would have fizzled before the summer recess.
    Dick Morris guess 100 seats…he’s probably closer to the truth.

  13. The big question is, how can the wishy washy GOP establishment mess this up?

  14. Baklava says:

    We need bold / big ideas.

    We need a 3 or 10 point plan.

    And a name for that plan that is not the same as Contract with America (as in 1994) but new and fresh.

    A name befitting of America’s strength and compassion yet a return to fiscal sanity.

  15. Carlos says:

    Americans have ADD as a whole, and, since the “health care” crap won’t kick in until AFTER the 2012 election, all the donks have to do is ask the simple question, “Has that bill hurt you?”, and the unassuming average public-educated voter will answer “No.”, and then go on his/her merry way realizing he/she really wasn’t hurt like all the Republicans said he/she would be, so they must be the liars and the donks the good guys.

    Don’t think it could happen? They were dumb enough to elect a Chicago lawyer thug with absolutely no experience to run the biggest economy and military in the world. What does that tell you?