Karl “Darth” Rove, probably one of the most interesting – if not the most interesting – political analyst of our times, has a write-up in today’s Wall Street Journal about Tuesday’s suburbs votes – and it doesn’t spell good news for the left:
Barack Obama was said to have redrawn the electoral map by winning Virginia last year with 53% of the vote. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell flipped the state back to the GOP, winning his election for governor with 59% of the vote. Mr. Obama carried New Jersey easily last year with 57% of the vote. This year, despite being outspent 3-to-1, Republican Chris Christie ousted Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine there by 49% to 45%. Mr. Obama carried Pennsylvania last year by 10 points. On Tuesday, Republican Judge Joan Orie Melvin was elected to the state’s Supreme Court by 53% to 47%, leading a GOP sweep of six of seven statewide contests.
The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania.
Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46.
A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama’s 259.
It’s a good piece, so make sure to read the whole thing.
As always, proceed with cautious optimism when thinking about the prospects for big GOP wins next year. As I’ve said before, the Dems’ big ticket issue right now – healthcare “reform” – could very well sink them in the midterms, but that’s only if Republicans and the Blue Dogs continue to not just stand firm against the type of “reform” ObamaCo. are selling, but also to keep trying to sell fiscally responsible healthcare ideas of their own, as well as also reminding people just how much President Obama and Congressional Democrats will stick it to the middle class in the form of higher taxes and fines over the next several years in order to “pay” for their big ticket items.
Time will tell.