Wow: When Barry Met Kathy
President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.
The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama. Overall, Romney has a 48 percent to 46 percent lead on Obama in the crucial swing state.
Obama received 95 percent of the support from African-Americans in North Carolina in the 2008 election, compared with just 5 percent for Republican nominee John McCain.
In PPP’s May poll, Obama received 87 percent of the African-American vote to Romney’s 11 percent.
All of Obama’s numbers with African-Americans are sliding. His approval rating is down from 86 percent to 77 percent. Romney’s favorability, meanwhile, has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent.
Jim Williams, a polling analyst at PPP, said it could be “statistical noise” that comes with a small sample (only about 200 African-Americans were surveyed). But he said it was not something the agency has “ever seen before.”
“Seventy-something percent is obviously low,” Williams told Business Insider. “It’s not something we’ve ever seen before. It’s definitely something we’re going to monitor.”
As I’ve written before, Obama barely won this state in 2008 – and he won it largely on his efforts to get young people and black people to the polls. If he loses even a small percentage of the black vote alone, it’s bad, bad news for his chances to win this state again. He’s also in trouble with independents:
If polling numbers in this state are any indication of things to come, Obama’s in for another battle in North Carolina come fall. His chances of winning here, as they did in 2008, will rely heavily on black voter turn out. Here in North Carolina, black voter turnout in 2008 was 6% higher than it had been in previous presidential election years. As I’ve said before, if he loses even one or two percent of the black vote that came out for him in 2008 – and he very well could as a result of his “coming out” in support of gay marriage, that will make the battle for NC even tougher for him.
Ultimately, though, people in this state – as they will in all others – will vote based largely on the economy, and privately some Democrat strategists are worried about the polling numbers from independents in several key states who look to be turning towards Romney on the issue of the economy:
Let’s also not forget the potential problems he’ll have with the youth vote and their waning enthusiasm:
President Obama’s visit to college campuses in swing states today [April 24] reminds us that at the end of the day, campaigns are about math. And for Obama a strong turnout by younger voters is part of the winning equation.
A recent Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll found that while the president enjoys a substantial, 60 percent to 34 percent lead, against Mitt Romney, among young voters, Obama’s “enthusiasm has taken a nosedive,” according to The Hill newspaper.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes notes: “In 2008, 63 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds took a big interest in the election. Four years later, 45 percent have the same level of interest, reflecting the most sizable drop in one of the major voting groups. The falling poll numbers come as data compiled by The Associated Press show that 53 percent of college graduates are unemployed or currently have a job that doesn’t meet their qualifications.”
When all is said and done and election day is here, I suspect all key Democrat voting blocs will fall in line and once again vote for President Obama, if for nothing else for the possibility of him getting to nominate another Supreme Court Justice. But as I said earlier, in battleground states, just a few percentage points can be huge and if Romney is able to peel 2 or 3% off of any key voting bloc for Obama – whether it be Hispanics, black people, the youth vote -, or if that percentage decides simply not to vote, it will have the potential of devastating our celebrity President’s chances of becoming re-elected.
Not to steal from McDonald’s or anything but … I’m lovin’ it.