Coup in Egypt? Court dissolves parliament, military takes control

Posted by: Phineas on June 14, 2012 at 1:31 pm

**Posted by Phineas

From Barry Rubin at PJM:

The Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court has just invalidated the parliamentary election there. The parliament, 75 percent of whose members were Islamists, is being dissolved. The military junta has taken over total authority. The presidential election is still scheduled for a few dozen hours from now.

In short, everything is confused and everything is a mess. All calculations are thrown to the wind. What this appears to be is a new military coup.

Yes, it is under legal cover but nobody is going to see it as a group of judges-appointed by former President Husni Mubarak, remember–looking deep into the law books and coming up with a carefully reasoned decision based on precedent. No. This will be seen by every Islamist–whether Salafi or Muslim Brotherhood–and by most of the liberals, who feel closer to the Islamists than to the government, as if the 2011 revolution has just been reversed.

Prediction: massive violence.

This is not good, and, were I an American in Egypt, I’d get the heck out, now.

Rubin’s first thought was of Algeria, which fought a years-long bloody, brutal war against Islamists that killed thousands. Egypt is far more populous; the potential for mayhem and chaos is enormous. And not just from the violence of civil conflict: Egypt imports over half its caloric needs and its cash reserves are dwindling fast. What little revenue (other than foreign aid) it brings in comes mostly from tourism, which has already suffered during the “Arab Spring.” If, as it looks, tourism collapses thanks to civil disorder, the potential for famine and even state collapse is very real.

Rubin, again:

This event poses a huge problem for the Obama Administration and I’ll bet one that has caught it by surprise. Does the U.S. government condemn the military and put sanctions on it, demanding that the Muslim Brotherhood be put into power? There is no easy solution. But we are likely to have the strange situation of an American president fighting to put into power an anti-American, anti-Christian, antisemitic political force that is opposed to all U.S. interests because–after all–they did win the election.

Dear President Obama: It’s 3AM and the phone is ringing. You’re on.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

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5 Responses to “Coup in Egypt? Court dissolves parliament, military takes control”

Comments

  1. Drew the Infidel says:

    All the ingredients for this outcome were already there, so-called Arab Spring or not. Do not lose sleep waiting for Barack Kardashian to do anything decisive or meaningful; he will be too preoccupied pressing the flesh at the Sarah Jessica Parker soiree. Bon apetite.

  2. Tango says:

    ….Egypt’s military brass knows they figure to swing (at the end of a rope) if the Muslim Bros take control of the government. I see this dissolving of parliament as a delaying action, and not much more.

    Barry should have kept his nose out and NOT thrown Mubarek under the bus. This naivete by our president bought us nothing and seems to have made a dicey situation worse.

  3. OldFert says:

    The dems seem to always choose the side that’s against our best interested.

    That’s a real talent.

  4. Tango says:

    ….In case anyone’s paying attention, the Muslim Bros have declared victory in last week’s election. And the Egyptian military brass have said they will “hand over power” on July 1st.