W Consolidating the Base
PRINCETON, NJ — George W. Bush has over the last two months consolidated his base vote in core Republican states and made slight inroads in swing states in the process of moving to a somewhat more competitive position against John Kerry.
This conclusion is based on a comparison of more than 3,500 interviews (including 3,141 registered voters), conducted in three CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls from mid-July through Aug. 11, with a group of more than 3,000 interviews (including 2,696 registered voters), conducted in three polls in June and early July.
Among all registered voters nationwide, the most recent three polls show Kerry with an average one-point lead over Bush — 48% to 47%. Kerry’s average lead among the three polls before that (in June and early July) was six points, 50% to 44%.