About that NBC/WSJ poll that panicked Republicans

**Posted by Phineas

"...but some animals are more equal than others" — “Thumb on the scale.”

You know, the one that showed Republicans getting killed over the government shutdown? Turns out there was a…. slight bias in the sample:

@texasbryanp In today’s NBC/WSJ poll, 1 in 5 respondents work for govt. Only 8% of general pop works for govt. See last page.

— Tampa (@S1CT) October 11, 2013

Gee, why am I not surprised that a poll that draws one-fifth of its respondents from government employees turns out badly for the party that’s against Big Government?

I think we can safely ignore this one.

Check out Bryan Preston’s post for analysis.

(Crossposted at Public Secrets)

5 Responses to "About that NBC/WSJ poll that panicked Republicans"

Libertarian Advocate says:

October 11, 2013 at 10:21 am

The White House knows very well from its own internal polling that Oblowhard took a massive hit in his popularity and that is why they are now talking. Nobody other than government employees buy his BS anymore.
omapian says:

October 11, 2013 at 11:38 am

I believe we, the people of the United States, have been played by experts. Democrats and Republicans charm the public as candidates soliciting funds and votes. Once elected, our candidates morph into INCUMBENTS, the exclusive body that hands out trillions of dollars in pork-laden legislation. Freshmen delegates inherit the bureaucratic rules, budget and debts generated by previous sessions of congress and the established incumbents vigorously defend the status quo. Novices soon learn that NEITHER PARTY will condemn the well-established spoils system.
Economists make an item affordable by increasing supply or reducing demand. Lawyers make an item affordable by forcing others to pay for it. With more lawyers than economists in government, the Affordable Health Care Act promised to increase demand by 30 million uninsured persons without addressing how the existing health care resources would service the new demand. The government will force healthy people to buy insurance that satisfies incumbent-mandated standards. Our agents hastily signed this into law without reading it. We now read that this law created a number of new political appointments and more opportunity to fold pork into future appropriations. Despite the repeated claims by the Executive and Legislative Branches that this was not a tax, the Supreme Court rejected our delegates stated intent and declared the law fell within the legitimate taxing authority of government.
The United States is a Constitutional Republic with authority granted by consent of the governed. Single issue advocacy groups may champion the First, Second, Fourth, or Fifth Amendments without caring the Bill of Rights was a package deal to protect the rights of the governed. Such groups employ lobbyists to persuade incumbents as activists compete for government resources. Incumbents can demonstrate their gratitude when they pick winners and losers.
At the close of the 19th Century, “Boss” Tweed freely diverted New York City funds to his cronies and legitimate businessmen to such an extent he risked the City’s ability to borrow operating funds. A whistleblower leaked documents to the New York Times. The public demanded an investigation, a trial and jail time. After the public anger subsided, a Tammany insider defended Honest Graft, the authority to legally direct tax dollars to causes and individuals he deem worthy and withholding funds from those who opposed him. George W Plunkett of Tammany Hall explained that politics was a business requiring hard work and money was needed to get elected. He worked hard and was richly rewarded. George valued reciprocity and shared the spoils across the aisle and received similar consideration when his party was out of power. He treated Reformers as Morning Glories knowing reforms were rapidly forgotten. The establishment has patience and rewards incumbents who stay the course. When a politician retired (or forced from office) he could still use his influence to sway former collogues.
At some point our government will re-open to business as usual. A divided public will have directed their outrage at members of the other party. Congress will claim they must increase the debt ceiling to avoid calamity. Democrats and Republicans will exploit the situation to rally the party faithful for the next election. Incumbents will reward their friends, punish their enemies, and enrich themselves.
The U.S. Constitution once limited the power of the Federal government. Over time, the government grew, assuming more control and distance from the voters. The public can no longer reasonably expect 535 elected delegates to provide proper oversight to the numerous federal bureaucracies and agents the government employs. Incumbents have learned to silence whistleblowers and journalists chose the term ‘lobbying’ rather than the more accurate ‘honest graft.’ This is not a case of a few rotten apples in a barrel. It is a contaminated barrel that infects even the most worthy candidates.
Drew the Infidel says:

October 11, 2013 at 5:35 pm

In “How To Lie With Statistics”, Darrell Huff sets aside a chapter called “The sample with the built-in bias”. He uses the example of a barrel filled with red beans and white ones and determining the number of each (without actually counting) by scooping out a handful and determining the proportion from that. However, if the sample is not sufficiently large, the results can be twisted to arrive at the biased conclusion. Much of what we think we know comes from such samples which are biased, too small, or both. Case in point.

Something seems to indicate there are several well-worn copies of Huff’s work floating around the LSM and WH.

“It ain’t so much the things we don’t know that get us in trouble. It’s the things we know that ain’t so.”–Artemus Ward
Carlos says:

October 13, 2013 at 1:47 am

Gee, why am I not surprised that a poll that draws one-fifth of its respondents from government employees turns out badly for the party that’s against Big Government?

Watch out, Phineas, you’re going to tick off the Repub leadership, what with implying they’re not for bigger guvmint.

Heck, they’d be out of jobs if it weren’t for Big Guvmint!
» October 13, 2013 says:

October 13, 2013 at 9:41 am

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