SurveyUSA has Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele now tied with Ben Cardin. Cardin has been running at least 6 points ahead or more in most polls taken in the last couple of months, but perhaps we’re now seeing the fallout from House Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer’s recent comments to a group of black businessmen that Steele had a “slavish” devotion to the Republican party?
Update I: The WaPo endorsed Cardin today. (Hat tip: K-Lo)
—-
Embattled House Rep and Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee Tom Reynolds (R-NY) has something to smile about today, as the latest SurveyUSA poll has him up 3 points over his demagoguing challenger Jack Davis. This has to be welcomed news for Reynolds, considering the last SurveyUSA poll taken just as Foleygate was heating up - with Reynolds taking some significant heat for his alleged ‘role’ in an alleged ‘coverup’ - had him 5 points behind Davis. Reynolds has also polled as much as 16 points behind Davis in the last couple of weeks.
Even with the news of this poll that shows him ahead, as RCP points out Reynolds is fighting for his political life in New York’s 26th Congressional district. This was once considered a safe seat, but since Foleygate broke, and with polling numbers showing Reynolds behind as much as 16 points, and now up by a small 3, Reynolds is going to be giving it all he’s got from now to election day to prove to voters of his district that he should still be the one representing them in Washington, DC.
—-
Montana Senator Conrad Burns, who had been behind Democratic challenger John Tester by as much as 11 points, is now only down by 3 according to the latest Rasmussen poll dated 10/18.
—-
Joe Lieberman has taken an even more comfortable 17 point poll lead over Nutroots candidate Ned Lamont. Ian asks “where are all nutroots now?” and notes the desperation being shown by fervent Lamont supporter and far left blogger Jane Hamsher, of the Lieberman blackface Photoshop infamy.
—-
Have we lost the Santorum seat? Rasmussen has Democrat Bob Casey leading the PA Senator by 13 points. Casey has consistently polled well in PA.
—-
Make sure to check out John Hawkins’ interview with Bob Corker. Corker is the Republican who hopes Tennessee voters elect him over Rep. Harold Ford for Bill Frist’s Senate seat. That race, by the way, is in a dead heat.
—-
Here’s an illustrated guide to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who could be Speaker Pelosi if Republicans lose next month. More via Don Surber, who speculates on the possibility of a Pelosi presidency. Yikes.
—-
Update II: New Jersey’s Thomas Kean and Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Menendez are still battling it out for control of Menendez’s Senate seat. While most polls have shown Menendez ahead by a few points, that could change of New Jersey Jewish voters find out how Menendez tried to, as Kean puts it, “hoodwink” them at a recent campaign stop.
—-
Update III: Virginia Senator George Allen is still polling slightly ahead of challenger Jim Webb, but I wonder if Allen will pull ahead a little more in the polls once voters find out about Webb’s Bill Clinton flip flop. Read about it here.
—-
Update IV: Scott at Election Projection: “The Outcome is in Our Hands”
—-
Update V: Betsy Newmark looks at what House Democrats have proposed in the last year or are proposing in Congress.
—-
Hat tip for some of these links: Hugh Hewitt, who is showing his usual and contagious optimism today towards Republican prospects for hanging on to the House and Senate this year.
Rush was quoting someone yesterday saying these polls over sample Democrats by on average 10%. Ahhh Duh Geee Tennessee, No wonder Reps do bad in these polls. - Lorica
Comment by Lorica @ 10/20/2006 - 10:08 am
Be funny if republicans faked the polling, and acted like they were voting for the other candidate to give the democrats a big boost, and then pull the rug out from underneath them at election day.
Comment by sanity @ 10/20/2006 - 10:13 am
I think Santorum will win, but you have to understand why conservatives here are angry with him. It’s for campaigning for Specter against Toomey. He could have stayed out of it, but he didn’t. And that really angered a lot of conservatives in Pennsylvania, and they’re still angry about it.
Comment by rightwingprof @ 10/20/2006 - 11:30 am
- We already do that a lot down here in S. LaLa land sanity. It’s funny. It’s been going on for as long as I can remember. The Dembulb polsters never seem to catch on. The exit polls always show them winning by a wide margin. Then when the count comes in it makes their heads explode.
- Bang
Comment by Big Bang Hunter @ 10/20/2006 - 11:31 am
- “Immigration issues causing Dem candidates to lose ground to the GOP”. I’m shocked. Shocked I tell you.
- It’s always amazing to see how much Washington Congress critters find out about the issues people really care about when they escape back to their districts at election time. Maybe we should hold affirmation elections every 6 months.
- Bang
Comment by Big Bang Hunter @ 10/20/2006 - 11:39 am
I agree with you Right Wing Professor. But how are you going to make things better by allowing a Dem to take this seat??? Would you shoot the horse because he threw a shoe?? That seems to be the logic. PA Conservatives need to tell Santorum after his victory, we elected you and you owe us, not the White House. Why this President backs every moderate that comes out of the wood work is just beyond me. Especially when you factor in how in the first few days of this President’s 1st term a moderate screwed him big, by becoming an Independant.
I hope and pray that as the elections come closer people will re-think thier anger. - Lorica
Comment by Lorica @ 10/20/2006 - 1:13 pm
Polls of the past.
Pretty funny stuff. I predict based on past precedence that we will show up and gain seats!
Comment by Baklava @ 10/20/2006 - 1:54 pm
The dems love the polls. It is the only time they are ahead. And I mean who really has time to sit home and answer the poll questions? Do you think the sampling of 1000 people with time on thier hands can really represent how the majority feels? Especially the way the pollsters ask the question.
Comment by G Monster @ 10/20/2006 - 2:21 pm
Betsy’s list of Democrat proposals with commentary:
Gas Stamp Act (McDermott, D-WA)—H.R. 3712. Creates billions of dollars in gas stamps each year for people to get free gas, to be distributed to those already eligible for food stamps. - Just what we need. More redistribution of wealth. This would also remove any incentive to get fuel efficient vehicles by the millions who qualify for this. That would be bad for the environment.
Ex-Offenders Voting Rights Act (Rangel, D-NY)—H.R. 663. Allows those convicts who are just out of prison to vote. - Do I need to comment here?
National Health Insurance Act (Dingell, D-MI)—H.R. 15. Institutes a new 5% value-added tax on property and services and creates a board to oversee payment to any individual for medical services not covered by Medicare. - 5% would be a big wallup on the stomach of the economy. Producing more unemployed (therefore uninsured), producing more people needing services of all kinds from the government. And what happens when the economy goes downhill? Revenues to the government decline!!! So how will anyone be better off?
End the War in Iraq Act (McGovern, D-MA)—H.R. 4232. Defunds the War in Iraq, forcing immediate troop withdrawal. - Humanitarian Crisis… Hut
Universal National Service Act (Rangel, D-NY)—H.R. 4752. Makes it an obligation of every U.S. citizen, and every other person residing in the U.S., between the ages of 18 and 42, to perform a two-year period of national service, either as a member of an active or reserve component of the armed forces or in a civilian capacity that promotes national defense. - John Kerry and company had circulateda scare letter through colleges about the draft. Who keeps bringing the garbage up? Democrats. Do you guys remember that scare letter?
Comment by Baklava @ 10/20/2006 - 3:50 pm
“But how are you going to make things better by allowing a Dem to take this seat?”
Oh, I’m not. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think on election day, grumpy conservatives are going to vote. Understand that other than Philly and the suburbs, and parts of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is an extremely conservative state (you’ve heard the Pittsburgh, Philly, and Alabama in between line, probably — it’s not far off the mark). A lot of the conservative PA bloggers who had declared they would sit out the election are changing their minds after the “outing” nonsense and now this NIE report leak.
And to be fair, I don’t think it was Bush campaigning for moderates as much as it was incumbents. Ditto for the NRSC. Not that I’m happy about it — it’s the reason I won’t give them a dime.
And I must admit that things might have turned out the best in one way. Toomey has more influence as the head of the Club for Growth than he would have had if he’d won the primary and election. Now, if we could just get rid of Specter.
Comment by rightwingprof @ 10/21/2006 - 12:29 pm
Don’t worry, after the election Spector will become a Democrat. And I agree, grumpy conservatives will vote, but this time they will be out numbered by angry Democrats and Independents who a fed up with Bush. Little Ricky is toast, so is DeWine, Chafee, and Burns. The battle moves South to Virginia and Tennessee. Think the Republicans can hold the Senate?
Comment by Keith @ 10/22/2006 - 6:30 pm
Fed up with Bush so that they’ll vote for more liberalism and bigger government when we’ve had bigger and bigger government every year for 6 decades? Not likely. Connservativism is gaining ground. We might actually get to have a government that stays the same size or shrinks some year soon in our lifetime. But that won’t be by electing Democrats. They vote for more spending than Republicans. Look it up!!!
Comment by Baklava @ 10/22/2006 - 6:36 pm
If Spector becomes a Dem, the people of PA are going to have a recall vote, cause it just ain’t right to run on Republican monies if you are going to switch parties. And then you are going to get a hard line conservative in that seat and your pipe dream will be up in smoke. - Lorica
Comment by Lorica @ 10/22/2006 - 7:29 pm