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Audacity of Truth
Iowa predictions
The big news of the day of course is tonight’s Iowa caucuses. Please use this thread to make your predictions about what you think will happen. I’m predicting Obama and Huckabee as tonight’s winners. Keep in mind, though, that a winner tonight doesn’t guarantee that that guy or gal will be the nominee, so if your candidate doesn’t win, don’t lose hope.
That said, The Politico is reporting that Republican officials close to Fred Thompson are saying he may drop out of the race if he does poorly in Iowa – and end up backing McCain. For Fred supporters, if that happens, who will be your next go-to guy? BTW, Fred is denying the Politico report.
Iowa resident Brian at Liberty Pundit weighs in with his predictions here, and John Hawkins has a predictions link round-up here.
Related: Michelle Malkin tackles the arguments against the Iowa caucuses.
PM Update: I wrote earlier that Fred Thompson was denying the report that he would drop out of the race if he doesn’t do well in Iowa. Since then, the Thompason campaign has stepped up big time and are strongly denying that Politico story. I guess we’ll see for sure one way or the other in the days to come.
And here are predictions from my friend Scott at Election Projection, a blog you should bookmark and visit regularly this campaign season.
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Disclaimer: The views expressed on this blog do not necessarily reflect those of ST's advertisers, nor do their opinions necessarily reflect ST's. Stats
Fred will finish in third so he’ll stay in the race. As I said here, it’s time that Republicans woke up & realized that we’re picking the next leader of the free world. We aren’t voting for the fluff-dried guy who “looks presidential.”
The problem is, we all want to pick a winner. Here in Iowa, there is so much positioning it’s crazy. I talk to a lot of people who would support Fred, but are concerned he won’t end up being the candidate in the end or won’t be able to beat whoever we face on the democrat side. Even though Fred stated recently that he doesn’t like the whole process of running, I think if he does well in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, he could turn into a dynamo. Regardless, I agree with Gary that we need to vote for the person we want to see in the Oval office, and let the process work itself out. The polls do nothing but manipulate the public… if we just do what’s right, we might surprise ourselves.
I never make predictions, but I suspect that the top three Democrats will finish in or close to the dreaded “statistical dead heat,” rendering the contest essentially meaningless. The mediots will make much of this for a day or two, but by then all eyes will be on New Hampshire. And fortunately we’ll only have to endure a few days of New Hampshire blaborama this time around.
But as I say, this is only a suspicion. I will say this: if I’ve suspected wrong, and Hillary comes in a clear third, then I suppose she’ll be criticized (and quite properly so) for campaigning so hard there at all. The mediots will point out that her first instinct was to have avoided the Iowa circus altogether.
Anyway, insofar as I can recall, Iowa’s done just two things for the Democrats (other than eliminating the second-tier candidates who were really running for vice president or in Kuchinich’s case for no special reason): they gave us Jimmy Carter (bad) and eliminated Howard Dean (good).
As for the Republicans, I don’t know how important their contest will be, considering that McCain and Rudy aren’t featured here. I would assume that Uncle Fredster will stay in the race through South Carolina, whatever happens. Again, come to think of it, I don’t think Iowa’s ever done anything for a GOP candidate, except put ‘em in the Hall of Shame. Remember the year Pat Robertson came in first, and the year George Bush Sr. had “The Big Mo” going into NH? Uhuh, uhuh . . .
And now, going out to all you ST fans, from 1983 off their album “More Fun in the New World” here’s X with “The New World!”
“Honest to goodness the bars weren’t open this morning. They must’ve been voting for a new president or something.”
http://tinyurl.com/2focfp
ST, glad you added the update. Right on schedule, we have the elitists whining about how it’s unfair that Iowa, and not the urban centers, gets the early focus.
From today’s Philadelphia Daily News: Iowa: It isn’t democracy & it makes no sense
For example, we get this:
Right. The idea that the people get to show up and choose a candidate is unbearably depressing. We should let places like Philadelphia go first. After all, we know that the election process in Philadelphia is soooooo uncorrupted by vote fraud or other shenanigans. I’d find it more disheartening if the process was controlled by a couple of party bosses and the only question was which faction could come up with more creative vote tallying methods.
He also wants to get rid of the Electoral College, all the better to rid the elites of the influence those tiresome peasants in flyover country.
What I like about our process in Iowa is that we don’t just get to vote, we get to discuss together (at least, as Republicans we do… the Dems have some kind of religious ritual they go through), and present our points of view regarding the candidates we support to each other before we vote.
As a Fred supporter, the only option I see left if he drops is McCain. Or give up and move to Montana. However, I suspect Huckabee will be the top winner tonight.
It is my humble opinion that Fred will do better than we suspect. There is growing support for him, and I am thinking when it comes right down to it he will do better than we imagine.
As far as the Dems go, who really cares??? They are all the same. Pander, pander, pander, if you vote for me, I will give you this. It it so sickening, I just feel the need to wretch. Everyone of them is so beatable, and I don’t care what the polls show. Polls don’t mean a thing once someone gets right down to brass tacks. – Lorica
Short version (longer back at NRE) -
Republicans
Huckabee – 26%
Romney – 24%
Thompson – 19%
Paul – 10%
McCain – 9%
Hunter – 5% (beats Giuliani by fractions of a percent)
Giuliani – 5%
Keyes – 2%
Democrats
Edwards – 30%
Obama – 29%
Clinton – 28%
Reports are coming out that if Kucinich, Biden, and Richardson end up not being viable candidates in the Iowa causcus, they will all ask their supporters to caucus for Obama.
If Ewards does well coming in second, Hilary could be in a little trouble coming out of Iowa.