The caucuses will be underway at 8pm ET. The media and the blogosphere are buzzing in anticipation of what the results will be.
More and more, I really do feel like Huckabee’s going to win tonight, but don’t think it will mean much in the long term, as Rudy hasn’t been campaigning much in Iowa, nor has McCain. The real test for all candidates, I think, will be New Hampshire.
Please weigh in with your thoughts on tonight’s caucuses and the primaries to come in the comments. Feel free to post links of interest related to the caucuses as well. I’ll be scanning the headlines, too.
Update 1: CNN has live video inside both the Democratic and Republican caucuses. Check the right side of the screen, and the java links should be there.
Update 2: Keep refreshing this site as it will have the results as they come in.
Update 3: CBS/AP reports that entrance polls are showing a tight race between Hillary and Obama, and Romney and Huckabee.
Update 4 – 8:50 PM: The AP reports that Huckabee has taken a “slight lead” over Romney. He’s actually ahead by about 130 votes with 2% precincts reporting. Keep checking this link and refreshing for updates. Edwards is currently in the lead on the Democrat side by 3 votes with 19% precincts reporting.
Update 6 – 9:13 PM: AP: Heavy Turnout in Iowa May Delay Process.
ST reader GWR in the comments rightly points out that Fred is defying expectations and is currently in third at this point. Ron Paul and McCain are currently in a battle for 4th. Expect the Ron Paul Truthers to go even more nuts if he beats out McCain.
Update 8 – 9:23 PM: Ron Paul slips to sixth, behind Rudy, with 41% reporting. For Democrats, it’s Obama 35%, Edwards 32%, and Hillary at 31%, with 58% reporting.
Update 9 – 9:28 PM: For what it’s worth, Drudge is calling the Dem caucus for Obama.
Brian at Liberty Pundit blogs about what he saw tonight in Iowa, and has more updates.
Update 10 – 9:31 PM: On the Dem side, with 70% reporting, it looks like this: Obama 35%, and Hillary and Edwards tied at 31%. The race for second continues.
Update 12 – 9:39 PM: Are Richardson supporters moving over “en masse” to the Obama camp as their “second choice” candidate as part of some “deal” between Obama and Richardson? The Richardson campaign says there was no deal.
Update 13: CNN reports that 60% of Republican caucus goers were evangelicals, and 45% of their votes went to Huckabee. He also won the women’s vote 45% to 23% over Romney. Rudy, as expected, is not doing well at this point and is now in sixth place, trailing Ron Paul.
Update 14: MSNBC’s First Read blog posts that their numbers on the Dem turnout show a much higher number than 2004. No word on Republican turnout numbers.
Update 15: Jim Geraghty has some sound advice for Romney, who must be feeling sick, considering how much he outpsent Huckabee in Iowa (I’m hearing it was in the 20-1 range).
And guess who is in third right now, ahead of Fred Thompson by about 40 votes? John McCain. 78% reporting.
Update 16 – 10:44 PM: MSNBC has confirmed that Chris Dodd is dropping out of the race. This link hasn’t been updated as of this writing to reflect that.
And here’s a post mortem of sorts on Hillary’s loss, via Ed Morrissey.
Update 17 – 11:00 PM: With 85% reporting, Thompson is now edging out McCain for third by around 300 votes.
And I’m headed for the pillow. Night night, ya’ll. Oh, and remember: New Hampshire is going to be the first big test for both parties. More so for Republicans than Democrats. That’s my prediction anyway, for what it’s worth …
One more thing: Jim Geraghty wrote earlier today about how Iowa Republicans are different from the rest of the country’s Republicans, and how that would work for Mike Huckabee (and in the end, it did end up working for Huck). Something else to think about going into NH.
Ok, g’nite for real this time!
Update 20 – 6:28 AM: Joe Biden has dropped out of the race.