Aug. 18: Cantor to resign from Congress
**Bumped to the top. Please scroll for updates**
My friend Scott at Election Projection has posted his predictions here. He’s got McCain edging out Mitt, and Obama being the clear winner over Hillary. Even though the NH polls have seen a back and forth between Romney and McCain in terms of who has come out on top, I give the edge to McCain, too. But I don’t think Obama will win by 7% points over Hillary, as Scott has predicted. Probably more like 3 or 4. Then again, I’m not exactly the Dionne Warwick of political predictions, so take anything I say on that front with a grain of salt
What will be interesting for me is what Romney will do if he loses NH. Iowa was a huge setback for the Romney campaign as he had spent a lot of time and money there, as he’s done in NH. I think he’ll stay in, but if he doesn’t pull in a good showing before the end of the month, we might see the curtains fall for Romney. Same same for Fred on needing a good showing in some other states before the end of the month.
Here’s a handy dandy primary schedule for your perusal. Next up after NH: Michigan, Nevada, SC, and finally at the end of the month, Florida.
Rumor has it that there’s a high turnout of Independents as well, which has Bob Owens predicting a Romney upset win over McCain.
Bryan at Hot Air has an interesting post up today – which includes video – about how the Clinton campaign is going full throttle negative on Obamania, saying things they should have said about Obama’s lack of experience and weak political record:
Bill Clinton called out Obama on his voting record, on his rhetoric and experience today, and all on the heels of Hillary attempting to dent Obama’s comparisons of himself to MLK and JFK. I say “Good.” There are plenty of negatives to be made against Obama, and who better to make them than Fat Elvis? He’ll put downsides into the mainstream that will prove useful in the general and, should the SS Hillary sink or stay afloat, he’ll have cut the Clinton wing off from the Messiah’s wing of the party.
Meanwhile, The Politico reports that Obamania at Dartmouth is a bit subdued.
Update 2 – 6:56 PM: Media Bistro is reporting on one MSNBC journalist’s comments about how hard it is to cover Obama and be objective. This is a sign of things to come – or, rather, what’s already happening … as is the cultism.
Update 3: The polls have now closed in NH. You can check and refresh for updates here on who’s winning here. I’m trying to round up some back up links for that one as well. McCain has taken an early lead with close to 10% reporting, and Hillary has an oh-so-slight edge over Obama.
Here’s another place to go for results. You have to refresh, and that site is busy as hell, too, so if you go there, be patient.
Update 4 – 8:22PM: Check out this fascinating link sent to me by a reader on Barack Obama’s political strengths – and who he learned them from. Consider it a must-read.
Update 6 – 10:22: It’s still too close to call for the Dems. What a crazy, unexpected night! I read somewhere (was it Hot Air?) where someone was saying that the votes from the college towns hadn’t come in yet, so that may make some difference for the O-man. Stay tuned …
I also predicted in the comments that, assuming Hillary held on to her slim lead tonight and won, that once Edwards drops out, that his votes will likely go to Obama. What do you think?
Update 8 – 10:50: Via MM: Obama has conceded NH to Hillary. She’s baaaaaaaaaaaaack. Can’t wait to see the exit polls.
Update 9 – 11:12: As Hillary makes her victory speech, the speculation begins: Was it her tearful moment yesterday, and the Iron My Shirt heckler/plant that “invaded” a Hillary campaign stop do the trick? Women voters did for her in NH what they didn’t do in Iowa:
In Iowa, Clinton lost out to Obama among women 35 percent to 30 percent. It’s a different story in New Hampshire, where 45 percent of female Democratic primary voters picked Clinton, compared to 36 percent who went for Obama.
Older voters are also overwhelmingly outnumbering younger voters, a proportion that is benefiting Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters are over the age of 40, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton over Obama.
What say ye?
Read more thoughts and analysis via Lorie Byrd, including this interesting tidbit:
Update 11:05: Frank Luntz just said the results he is seeing show that independents that were going to vote for Obama switched late to vote in the Republican primary instead.
Update 10: The write-ins got more votes than Fred. Rudy pulled in a respectable 4th place finish. Not bad for someone who didn’t campaign there much. Romney’s 2nd place finish was not a strong one. What’s next for him? Enquiring minds wanna know …
Here’s a good Dems-in-NH postgame wrap-up via Bryan at Hot Air.
Update 11: Oh Gloria, where ARE you?
And the blogosphere reax.