It’s primary day in New Hampshire (UPDATE 11: ANXIOUSLY AWAITING GLORIA STEINEM’S REACTION)

Posted by: ST on January 8, 2008 at 6:27 pm

**Bumped to the top. Please scroll for updates**

Malkin got an early start on NH primary blogging last night, and here’s all the latest, via Memeorandum.

My friend Scott at Election Projection has posted his predictions here. He’s got McCain edging out Mitt, and Obama being the clear winner over Hillary. Even though the NH polls have seen a back and forth between Romney and McCain in terms of who has come out on top, I give the edge to McCain, too. But I don’t think Obama will win by 7% points over Hillary, as Scott has predicted. Probably more like 3 or 4. Then again, I’m not exactly the Dionne Warwick of political predictions, so take anything I say on that front with a grain of salt ;)

What will be interesting for me is what Romney will do if he loses NH. Iowa was a huge setback for the Romney campaign as he had spent a lot of time and money there, as he’s done in NH. I think he’ll stay in, but if he doesn’t pull in a good showing before the end of the month, we might see the curtains fall for Romney. Same same for Fred on needing a good showing in some other states before the end of the month.

Your predictions?

Here’s a handy dandy primary schedule for your perusal. Next up after NH: Michigan, Nevada, SC, and finally at the end of the month, Florida.

Update 1 – 4:28 ET: Multiple media outlets are reporting that turnout is “huge” for today’s NH primary with concerns that they may run out of ballots in some areas – mainly Democratic ones.

Rumor has it that there’s a high turnout of Independents as well, which has Bob Owens predicting a Romney upset win over McCain.

Bryan at Hot Air has an interesting post up today – which includes video – about how the Clinton campaign is going full throttle negative on Obamania, saying things they should have said about Obama’s lack of experience and weak political record:

Bill Clinton called out Obama on his voting record, on his rhetoric and experience today, and all on the heels of Hillary attempting to dent Obama’s comparisons of himself to MLK and JFK. I say “Good.” There are plenty of negatives to be made against Obama, and who better to make them than Fat Elvis? He’ll put downsides into the mainstream that will prove useful in the general and, should the SS Hillary sink or stay afloat, he’ll have cut the Clinton wing off from the Messiah’s wing of the party.

Meanwhile, The Politico reports that Obamania at Dartmouth is a bit subdued.

Update 2 – 6:56 PM: Media Bistro is reporting on one MSNBC journalist’s comments about how hard it is to cover Obama and be objective. This is a sign of things to come – or, rather, what’s already happening … as is the cultism.

Update 3: The polls have now closed in NH. You can check and refresh for updates here on who’s winning here. I’m trying to round up some back up links for that one as well. McCain has taken an early lead with close to 10% reporting, and Hillary has an oh-so-slight edge over Obama.

Here’s another place to go for results. You have to refresh, and that site is busy as hell, too, so if you go there, be patient.

Update 4 – 8:22PM: Check out this fascinating link sent to me by a reader on Barack Obama’s political strengths – and who he learned them from. Consider it a must-read.

Update 5 – 8:24: With 12% reporting, Fox and CNN are calling NH for McCain. Still very close between Hillary and Obama.

Update 6 – 10:22: It’s still too close to call for the Dems. What a crazy, unexpected night! I read somewhere (was it Hot Air?) where someone was saying that the votes from the college towns hadn’t come in yet, so that may make some difference for the O-man. Stay tuned …

I also predicted in the comments that, assuming Hillary held on to her slim lead tonight and won, that once Edwards drops out, that his votes will likely go to Obama. What do you think?

Update 7 – 10:36: The Concord Monitor is reporting that the AP and NBC are calling NH for Hillary. 66% reporting. CNN says it’s still too close to call.

Update 8 – 10:50: Via MM: Obama has conceded NH to Hillary. She’s baaaaaaaaaaaaack. Can’t wait to see the exit polls.

Update 9 – 11:12: As Hillary makes her victory speech, the speculation begins: Was it her tearful moment yesterday, and the Iron My Shirt heckler/plant that “invaded” a Hillary campaign stop do the trick? Women voters did for her in NH what they didn’t do in Iowa:

In Iowa, Clinton lost out to Obama among women 35 percent to 30 percent. It’s a different story in New Hampshire, where 45 percent of female Democratic primary voters picked Clinton, compared to 36 percent who went for Obama.

Older voters are also overwhelmingly outnumbering younger voters, a proportion that is benefiting Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters are over the age of 40, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton over Obama.

What say ye?

Read more thoughts and analysis via Lorie Byrd, including this interesting tidbit:

Update 11:05: Frank Luntz just said the results he is seeing show that independents that were going to vote for Obama switched late to vote in the Republican primary instead.

Interesting …

Update 10: The write-ins got more votes than Fred. Rudy pulled in a respectable 4th place finish. Not bad for someone who didn’t campaign there much. Romney’s 2nd place finish was not a strong one. What’s next for him? Enquiring minds wanna know …

Here’s a good Dems-in-NH postgame wrap-up via Bryan at Hot Air.

Update 11: Oh Gloria, where ARE you?

And the blogosphere reax.

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  • 25 Responses to “It’s primary day in New Hampshire (UPDATE 11: ANXIOUSLY AWAITING GLORIA STEINEM’S REACTION)”

    Comments

    1. benning says:

      Dixville Notch, NH has finished its voting and given the majority of its votes to Obama and McCain.

      Nary a vote for Hillary or Fred.

      Hillary may still be weeping.

    2. Severian says:

      I predict that by the time we get to November, after over a year of solid campaigning and putting up with the candidates and the primaries and the conventions and the campaigns being the only thing on the news, with the exception of Britney’s meltdowns, I and most of the rest of the electorate will be so damned tired of it all it’ll be nigh impossible to actually generate enough enthusiasm to get off the couch and drive over to the polls and actually vote. /:)

    3. TedintheShed says:

      Amen to that Sev.

      That said, I am probably not going to vote this year in the national elections. I can’t find one candidate worthy of my vote and I refuse to endorse any of these crooks and liars on either side of the isle.

    4. Tango says:

      We’re seeing a trend here. The MSM is pushing McCain in NH in the same manner they did Huckabee in IA. If McCain ekes out a win in NH, the media will be further emboldened in their thinking that they’ll be able to “manage” the outcome of the election. b-)

    5. I’ll be astounded if Obama doesn’t win by double-digits. He’s got all the enthusiasm right now and independents will break overwhelmingly for him.

    6. steveegg says:

      As planned, Sev. Exactly as planned.

      In any case, my predictions (the short version):

      On the Dem side, Hussein Obama crushes Hiliary by 11 and Breck Girl by 22.

      On the Pubbie side, McCain by 8 over Romney and Paul-Nut taking 3rd.

    7. Leslie says:

      Tango points out:

      We’re seeing a trend here. The MSM is pushing McCain in NH in the same manner they did Huckabee in IA. If McCain ekes out a win in NH, the media will be further emboldened in their thinking that they’ll be able to “manage” the outcome of the election.

      Yes, of course. But I think, when the results are muddled, the party pros pick the GOP nominee. The media pick the Democratic nominee. Now, it appears the media already have picked the Democratic nominee, but now, of course, in order to get their horse race, they have to take down Obama, which means they have to revive Hillary, in order to string things out for a bit longer.

      Look for some ridiculous articles “scrutinizing” Obama. We’ll learn that years ago he beat his dog or something. And we will see signs of a Hillary “comeback.” In fact, it might have already started with that sob-o-rama nonsense.

      \:d/

    8. Baklava says:

      McCain won by 20 in NH in 2000. This smaller win this year shows me that McCain will not win and Republicans do not want him even more than before.

      NH becomes less and less relevant….

      and on the Hillary / Obama race…. doesn’t NH have less African Americans than Iowa? Hillary has a really tough road to travel the next few states…

    9. Mwalimu Daudi says:

      So far Hilly the Hun is leading the Empty Suit. I am all for total and complete fratricide in the Democrat Party…:d

    10. Steve Skubinna says:

      I’d bet on Hillary. The Clinton machine is in top gear, and we’re going to see some results shortly. The “inevitability” has worn off her campaign, but I still think she’ll end up with the nomination.

      What I find interesting is that (according to the hysterical left) Iowa proved that we are no longer racist but are still sexist. I expect that a Hillary win in NH will prove we are no longer sexist but are still racist. It requires a lot of mental flexibility and nimbleness to be a lefty these days.

    11. Great White Rat says:

      Bak,

      McCain’s big win 8 years ago was from a heavy influx of independents who chose to vote in the GOP primary. This year, a lot of those same people have decided they’re in love with Obama. That’s the drop-off. His share of the vote among registered Republicans is about the same.

      Right now, with almost half the NH vote in, the Hildebeest has about a 4000 vote lead. And it looks like the margin is growing.

      What’s the over-under on how many words into her speech tonight she blurts out the words “comeback kid”? :-&

    12. Great White Rat says:

      It requires a lot of mental flexibility vacuity and nimbleness inconsistency to be a lefty these days.

      There….fixed it for ya, Steve. :d

    13. Mwalimu Daudi says:

      Right now Ron Paul is in 5th place with about 8% of the vote – almost 1,000 voted behind Rudy, who did nothing in New Hampshire.

      There is an irony in the fact that the Hun lost to the Empty Suit in Iowa because of a vapid promise of “change”. Now Hilly’s tears – an even more vapid campaign trick – might flood out the Empty Suit.

      I am really enjoying this! :d:d:d:d:d

    14. Even if Hillary holds on to her slim lead tonight, as soon as Edwards drops out of the race, his votes would likely go to Obama, and it’d be all over but the crying for the Hillary campaign.

    15. Mwalimu Daudi says:

      ST: One commentator on FOX said that she believes that Edwards’ voters might gravitate slightly towards the Hun. Opinions are like bellybuttons – everyone has one.

      Seriously completely absolutely off topic – the 2008 schedules have been announced, and the Cowboys and the Panthers will not play – in the regular season. Remember the Cats have never beaten the Pokes in the regular season, but have never lost to them in the playoffs.

      So perhaps in 2009 we might be at war with each other again????

    16. Great White Rat says:

      I dunno, ST. I agree with you that the Edwards votes would go to Hillary, but there are a lot of states that still hold conventions, etc., where organization is more important. Did you know that even before NH Hillary has 100 more committed delegates than Obama? Those are organization delegates, and she’s going to clean up most of them regardless of the results in primary states.

      I won’t think her campaign is dead and buried unless she’s completely crushed on Super Tuesday and the Dem organizations start rethinking their support.

    17. So perhaps in 2009 we might be at war with each other again????

      MD, I sure hope so! ;) It’d be so nice to be able to hold my head high when cheering for the Panthers again.

      GWR: Thanks for the info – I didn’t know that.

      Wow – what a wild night. I’m not going to sleep until I see “100% reporting”!

    18. Great White Rat says:

      Silky Pony’s speaking now. What he says makes no difference. Stick a fork in him, he’s done. l-)

    19. Indeed, thank goodness it looks like he’s done. Once a loser, always a loser. It’s a relief, because had he won tonight, and somehow wormed his way into the WH, this blog would have been turned into EdwardsWatch.com, devoted to 24-hour non-stop debunking of His Royal Phoniness ;)

    20. Mwalimu Daudi says:

      Wow! Clinton Inc. is alive and well. All of the MSM reporters who annointed Obama as the next John. F. Kennedy must be climbing the walls by now. Looks like the MSM will have no choice but to start covering up the Clinton scandals – again.

    21. Great White Rat says:

      What’s the over-under on how many words into her speech tonight she blurts out the words “comeback kid”?

      Not counting the series of “thank you”s before the actual speech, it took exactly two sentences. OK, who took the under besides me?? :d

    22. sodaboy says:

      is the party looking to elect a different kind of conservative? makes sense strategically although I am still behind Mitt and think he’ll remain. im not as confident about his chances as I once was.