The SC primary and Nevada caucuses – Post 2 (FINAL UPDATE: MARK STEYN’S ANALYSIS: “MCCAIN IS ON COURSE TO BE THE NOMINEE”, HUCKABEE CAMP BLAMES DEFEAT ON FRED )

Posted by: Sister Toldjah on January 19, 2008 at 4:34 pm

**Due to the long length of my prior post on the SC primary and Nevada caucuses, I am starting this one, which will primarly focus on the SC primary, but will include any interesting info I come across on the NV Dem caucus, which as I reported in my prior post has been called for Hillary by all the major networks. A reminder: I will be on BlogTalk Radio tonight with Rick Moran at 8 PM ET to discuss today’s primary/caucus results.**

Jonathan Martin at The Politico writes that Fred is sounding like he will drop out if he doesn’t have a “strong finish” in SC today:

Fred Thompson made it clear at a midday campaign stop that he won’t continue in the race without a strong showing out of South Carolina tonight.

“We’ll see how we have to do, we’ll see what the results are,” Thompson said, when questioned at a small press availability if he needed to win to go forward. “I’ve always said I have to do very well here; there’s no question about that. I stand by that.”

“We won’t have too much longer to wait,” he added.

Asked what his plans were for Monday, Thompson repeated the question: “Plans for Monday currently?”

“It depends on the outcome,” Thompson admitted. “We’ll see.”

If exit polls are any indication, he’s out.

Update 1 – 4:42 PM – (General): The Sunday Times reports that Oprah is facing some backlash from female fans for supporting the male candidate over the female candidate. (eye roll)

Update 2 – 4:53 PM – (SC): High turnout is being reported in Beaufort County. The total population for that county is around 142,000.

Update 3 – 5:05 PM – (SC): McCain is seeking a court order to allow voters in Horry County one extra hour to vote due to the voting problems they had this morning. Stephen Spruiell explains why:

McCain needs a big turnout in the coastal areas of the state in order to win. McCain made Myrtle Beach a part of his final push yesterday, and as we found out, he has a lot of support down there.

Remember to keep this SC results link bookmarked, so you can refer back to it this evening after the polls close at 7.

Update 5 – 5:38 PM – (SC): The AP has some exit poll numbers that might prove troublesome for McCain:

Preliminary figures from exit polls of voters showed that conservatives and white evangelical and born-again Christians were turning out heavily, and that Republican voters said a candidate who shares their values was most important. That all boded well for Huckabee, the one-time Southern Baptist preacher with solid social conservative credentials, and poorly for McCain, who has a rocky relationship with hard-right voters despite a right-leaning Senate voting record on issues they care most about.

Also troublesome for McCain: GOP voters ranked illegal immigration as their second-most important issue behind the economy. And, just over half said illegal immigrants should be deported. McCain has drawn fire from parts of his party for backing an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants in the country illegally.

However, exit polls also showed that veterans were about a quarter of the overall vote, while people over the age of 50 made up over half of those who voted. Native South Carolinians were making up just less than half of voters.

Allahpundit reports on Fred’s chances of staying in the race, notes that the Fred campaign is saying they “may” still stay in the race even if he finishes 3rd, and also points to exit polls reported by Fox News which show Fred may finish in 4th.

Update 6 – 6:55 PM – (NV/SC): The Clinton and Obama camps are both leveling voter suppression accusations at each other.

Polls close in SC in 5 minutes.

Update 7 – 7:00 PM – (SC): The polls in SC are now closed. Let the counting begin :) Click here, here, or here to follow the results as they come in. I think all pages you have to manually refresh.

Update 8 – 7:12 PM – (SC): Hotline On Call is reporting that Duncan Hunter is dropping out of the race. Too bad he could never get his candidacy off the ground. I really liked him.

The latest round of exit polls show McCain up 33% to 27% over Huck, with Romney and Thompson trailing at 16% and 15% respectively (via Palmetto Scoop).

The best page for results right now is the CNN page. Make sure to refresh every few minutes. ABC’s page is good, too.

Update 9 – 7:33 PM – (NV/SC): Even though Hillary won NV, will Barack Obama get the most delegates from that state? The Nation is saying yes. The Obama campaign confirms.

With 1% reporting, McCain leads over Huckabee by around 800 votes. In the battle for 3rd, Romney is ahead of Thompson by about 400 votes.

Update 10 – 7:53 PM – (General): Don’t forget – I’ll be on Rick Moran’s BlogTalk Radio show in about 7 minutes.

Update 11 – 7:58 PM – (SC): With 6% reporting, McCain leads by little less than 2,000 votes. Thompson’s about 300 behind Romney for 3rd.

Update 12 – 8:27 PM – (SC): With 29% reporting, McCain is ahead by 6% – 7,000 votes. Thompson has actually edged Romney for 3rd by about 200 votes.

Update 13 – 9:06 PM – (SC/NV): 72% reporting – McCain’s up by 16,000 votes. Media still hasn’t called it.

Re: the Nevada delegate count – was Obama wrong in asserting that he’d get one delegate more than HRC?

Update 14 – 9:09 PM – (SC): Fred’s headed back home to TN rather than wait for the rest of the results. CNN is reporting that, while still in the race:

Thompson has no public schedule Sunday, and is planning to consult with campaign manager Bill Lacy and other top advisers about the next move.

“We are not blind to the obvious,” said one senior campaign adviser.”

Update 15 – 9:15 PM – (SC): Drudge has up at his site that McCain has won the SC primary, but there’s no link to any news outlets calling it for “the maverick.” The mediots aren’t calling it yet, even though McCain is ahead at 82% with 14,000 votes more than Huckabee. Thompson is still in 3rd by 3,000 votes over Romney.

The mediots are calling this a “tight race.” Huh? Being ahead by 14,000 votes with 18% of the vote left to count hardly equates to “tight.”

Update 16 – 9:24 PM – (SC): Just across the wires: The AP is calling it for McCain.

Here’s the link (and an alternate link) to tonight’s BlogTalkRadio show where I joined Rick Moran and several other great bloggers in discussing today’s results.

Update 17 – 9:54 PM – (SC): MM reports on how the MSNBC campaign coverage crew (Matthews and Olbermann) mocked some of the Republican candidates. More here. Jerks.

Update 18 – 10:28 PM – (SC): Check out Mark Steyn’s analysis of SC and beyond. I think he’s spot on.

With 93% reporting, McCain’s ahead by 14,000 votes. Looks like Fred will finish in 3rd, with 3,000 more votes than Romney.

MSNBC’s First Read reports that Huckabee is blaming his loss tonight on Fred Thompson’s staying in the race (via Hot Air).

I’m exhausted, and am headed for the pillow now. G’nite, all!

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  • 20 Responses to “The SC primary and Nevada caucuses – Post 2 (FINAL UPDATE: MARK STEYN’S ANALYSIS: “MCCAIN IS ON COURSE TO BE THE NOMINEE”, HUCKABEE CAMP BLAMES DEFEAT ON FRED )”

    Comments

    1. Alamo Tim says:

      Give me a break. I don’t know why anyone would actually believe or rebroadcast any of the non-credible Anti-Fred propaganda that the Politico continues to churn out. /:)

      Fred is pressing on to Florida and on thru Super Tuesday:

    2. Alamo Tim says:

      Here’s the article that failed to post as a link in my last entry: LINK

    3. benning says:

      Are we still listening to Politico? Why?

    4. Because the Politico reported what Fred said himself. Does that sound like a candidate who is going to stay in the race beyond SC if he doesn’t put in a strong showing?

    5. Sandy C says:

      Here’s hoping for a BIG McCain loss. He’s NOT a conservative and doesn’t give a damn about what the people want. Didn’t he ever hear the phrase a government of the people, by the people and for the people? **==

    6. sodaboy says:

      Ive heard Fred on Hannity and Levin and he seemed pretty clear that he’d drop out after SC. His campaign rested on Southern wins and SC was the key test if that strategy was going to work out.

      He’s been in single digits in SC since early Jan – he won’t continue – or at least shouldn’t. Even if he did win there wasn’t a lot of hope.

      I like the guy but he should drop out with dignity.

      I’ve been on his but on my site for a while – he made a lot of mistakes

    7. HNAV says:

      GREAT Coverage SISTER,

      Will Fred stay in to help his close Friend, John McCain?

      Does his presence strip votes away from others who would otherwise select a more conservative offering than McCain?

      Is it a problem, for the Man who is perceived as the ‘true conservative’, to endorse the liberal placation of Senator McCain?

      Fred seems to be able to hurt Rudy or Romney…

      And it will be curious…

    8. Mwalimu Daudi says:

      Looks like Huckabee is finished as well. If he cannot win in South Carolina, it is hard to see where else he can win. He needed this one badly, and he did not get it.

      I hate to say it, but I think that McCain is the frontrunner and will probably be the GOP nominee. I also don’t think it will be a brokered convention – McCain will probably get enough delegates before then. Any prediction on who McCain would take as his VP? I would not be surprised to see Romney get the nod.

      Paul finished fifth with 4% of the vote in SC. While he did better in Nevada, he only got 13% of the vote – nowhere near what Romney won. The Ronulans will rejoice about Nevada, but they need to put down the Kool-Aid and start to sober up. If Paul did so poorly in a libertarian-friendly state like Nevada, where do they think that he can win? So far Paul’s performance has been nowhere near what the hype has predicted.

    9. I think Romney’s ego is too big to accept a VP nod (same same for Rudy). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick Thompson in an effort to appeal to the base.

    10. steveegg says:

      Sorry; I was too busy on several liveblogs to listen live. I’ll have to listen tomorrow (hopefully I’ll be recovered after having a whole heap of Blatz to forget tonight).

    11. CT says:

      It’s too early to call it for McCain yet. We have Florida and Super Tuesday. Who knows what will happen (this whole primary has been damn near unpredictable thus far). McCain has a shot at it, but it’s hardly a slam dunk.

      And as much as I like Fred, I have to admit he’s probably done for.

    12. Baklava says:

      Not all the votes were counted. Fred truly won. I demand a recount ! :((

    13. JT says:

      ST – The second link at Update 16 for BlogTalkRadio is missing the “h” in “http”. I tried to listen in while you and Ed were on, but BTR doesn’t like my browser, sigh.

      Go Fred !

    14. M Lyster says:

      Will someone explain to me how they regard McCain as ‘the anointed one’ already, when three separate candidates have won in the primaries to date, and Romney just hammered the vote in Nevada? I mean, look—I’ve been a Fred fan, although the end of his campaign has been well in sight since at least Iowa. But how is it that the candidate with the most overall votes and the most delegates is somehow relegated to ‘also-ran’ status? Good gosh, someone do some basic math here!

    15. Tango says:

      Someone needs to explain to me how McCain is the “frontrunner” when Mitt has TWICE as many delegates? This “McCain the frontrunner” jive is a media invention. Pablum du jour for the sheepies. b-)

    16. steveegg says:

      That sobered me up (it was either that or the -5 cold here in the land of ice cream and ice-brewed high-alcohol beer). I’m still working my way through my extended thoughts (mainly waiting for the water to sweep over the decks for the last time).

      So, who’s up for a live-blog of “Airplane!”?

    17. Leslie says:

      Say goodnight, Fred. What a craptastic campaign.

      Will Huckabee be VP choice?

      Media being superextracareful calling the races this time . . . better than the other way.

      Somebody’s gonna have to explain to me how Obama ends up with one more delegate than Hillary, although the mediots claim Hillary has “won” Nevada.

      On second thought, never mind.

      Say–Who was that Zombie reported being seen in Florida? Oh wait! That was Rudy.

      I have no idea what Der Olbermench and Tweety had to say about the GOP candidates–they’re unwatchable.

      If I’m the MSNBC line producer, I take the coffee machine out of their studio.

      CNN’s John King brings great analysis to where the vote’s coming from in various counties. But Bill Bennett looks like a tired computer riding home to Lawn Guyland on a 2:30 a.m. train from Penn Station.

      Fox has the best graphix, and their panel is so familiar with each other it’s like watching a family dinner.

      I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll start focussing on the delegate count after Feb. 5.

      /:)

    18. Baklava says:

      About Fred.

      Judgmentalism invades the writing of most writers including myself. We have to write. Therefore we have to have words that judge others.

      Thompson has the best policies and the best vision for the future but so many people want to judge not that but his ‘campaign’.

      The Clinton’s run a good campaign. So what. They have a war room and do whatever it takes to win.

      I’m not inspired by anybody in this field except Thompson. His views are my views. I love how he answers reporters and moderators in the debate. He is full of common sense.

      My least likeables are McCain and Huckabee. I’d rather Romney and/or Guliani win.

      And why? Not because Guliani or Romney ran good campaigns but because they are the next best on the issues to me….

      And that’s what should matter…