**This post has been bumped to the top and will be updated frequently, with the most recent updates appearing at the bottom of it. Newer posts are below.**
Voters are going to the polls today in Wisconsin and Washington state, and caucusing in Hawaii to decide which Democrat candidate they want to be their party’s nominee. 92 total delegates are in play in WI, where in the polls Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by the margin of error, while 20 delegates are at stake in HI, where neither candidate has campaigned, outside of Hillary Clinton sending Chelsea to Hawaii yesterday. Barack Obama was born in Hawaii, and his sister lives there so that may have some influence with voters.
To view results as they come in, bookmark the following links:
As far as Washington goes, they’ve already had their caucuses, which saw Barack Obama defeat Hillary Clinton and John McCain edge out Huckabee. Today’s Dem primary in WA is “non-binding” while 19 delegates are up for grabs for the GOP. The results page for WA is here.
The Clinton campaign is playing the low expectations game, and saying that they don’t believe she will win in WI. The Politico reports this morning that La Clinton is hot on the heels of some of Obama’s pledged (not super) delegates. On the other hand, when it comes to the “buying the super delegates” contest, the “hope” candidate is heavily outspending his opponent. So much for that “change” he’s been promising …
Speaking of the O-man, sensible liberal blogger Kevin Drum writes today about the “Obama bubble” and fears it’s already been popped:
A “backlash” from a conservative like [NYT columnist David] Brooks is hardly a surprise. Still, I think [NYT columnist Paul] Krugman is right: bubbles always burst, and Obama has been riding a major league bubble for months now. Before too much longer his supporters are going to come down to earth. Reporters will start wondering why Obama doesn’t like to talk to them very much — and then they’ll get bored and cynical and start doing to him what they did to Howard Dean in 2004. John McCain is going to find his rhythm (though he hasn’t yet) and start making some effective jabs.
This backlash meme is already widespread, and you can almost feel in the air that it’s about to explode into a feeding frenzy. In other words, it ain’t over yet. Wisconsin and the two weeks after it should be interesting, shouldn’t they?
Stay tuned …
Update 1 - 6:28 PM: Via the Captain, I just read about some early exit polls that have been released, which have good news for both Hillary and Obama. Jim Geraghty notes that that turnout in WI has been high in some places, and low in others. The WI Board of Elections believes that voter turnout will be around 35% after all is said and done.
Polls close in WI at 9 pm ET.
Update 2 - 6:30 PM: Geraghty’s hearing that from 2 sets of exit data, tonight we may see a big win for the O-man. Anything can happen, of course, as exit polls have been wrong before. We’ll soon find out.
Hillary, BTW, is already in Ohio (as is Obama). The latest polls there show Obama closing in on her lead.
Update 3 - 7:03 PM: Hawaii is expecting a record turnout for its caucuses.
Update 4 - 9:00 PM: Polls have now closed in WI. They close in HI at 12:30 AM ET, and WA at 11 PM ET.
Fox is projecting McCain to win in WI. Surprise. ABC is reporting that Obama is leading in the exit polling.
Update 5 - 9:08 PM: McCain slaps Obama with a comment about the “eloquent but empty promise of change.”
Update 6 - 9:19 PM: Fox News is calling WI for BO - not sure if it will be a narrow victory or a wide margin victory. Rove speculates that if the victory is only a couple points for BO, then it will have actually been a decent night for Hillary because it means BO would only pick up one or two more delegates than she would.
Update 7 - 9:30 PM: Clinton is in OH speaking. FoxNews says there was a negative speaker there prior to Clinton who was so negative towards Obama that the crowd started booing.
Update 8 - 9:38 PM: Obama is speaking in TX. Can I bear to sit through this latest tent revival? Will he use his own words or “borrow” someone else’s?
He’s talking up early voting - probably doing that just in case the momentum slides back to Hillary.
Is he missing his treasured Teleprompter? He’s not his usual eloquent self at the moment. Maybe later when he gets into his actual prepared speech.
What a BS’r, complaining about lobbyists when he takes money from them, too.
The crock-speak continues - acting like he cares about the troops, when what he wants to do is cut and run from Iraq. The only time most Dems in DC “care” about the troops is when they aren’t in harms way.
Big government, big government, big government.
Yada yada - class warfare. Wake me when it’s over.
“If you work in America, you should not be poor.” Huh?
25 minutes into the speech - is he milking this free airtime or what? I wish the nets would all cut away from him at the same time before he stops speaking.
10:06 PM - What you need is a president who will tell you the truth, not just what you want to hear. Uh, right. You’re no paragon of virtue on that front, BO.
Here we go again - the money being spent in Iraq can be better used here. So much for “supporting” the troops!
This speech has gone on for 30 minutes!
First the MLK comparisons, now JFK. When will the nets cut from this stump speech?
35 minutes and counting.
Great way to mischaracterize your opponents arguments against your empty rhetoric, BO.
He’s lying about McCain’s 100 years war comment - AGAIN. When are the mediots going to call him on this?
Yeah, I know. They won’t.
40 minutes and counting.
Boy, he really doesn’t like it when people criticize his empty rhetoric.
The crowd seems to be getting bored/tired as the speech goes on - that’s what happens when you give speeches to a crowd that has a significant number of people with short attention spans.
The 46 minute speech is over.
Update 9 - 8:17 AM Wednesday: As expected, BO won his home state handily.
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Watch for a backlash to the backlash !
Comment by Baklava @ 2/19/2008 - 12:17 pm
She won’t win here. She won’t even get particularily-close, though she should be closer than Huckabee.
Comment by steveegg @ 2/19/2008 - 3:09 pm
The problem Obama will face is that he’s not selling a product, but a process. What is “change”? Is it animal, vegetable, or mineral? A solid, a liquid, or a gas? Who knows? It could be anything.
Now it’s possible Obama knows what direction he wants to take America in, but it’s also possible that should he find himself in the Oval Office on day 1 (and at this point in time I’d imagine you could get longer odds on McCain), he’ll look around and wonder: “I’m here. Now what do I do?”
Comment by Leslie @ 2/19/2008 - 6:49 pm
“Hope is not a plan”
That’s a sign that has been outside a coworker’s cube for over 6 years.
Comment by Baklava @ 2/19/2008 - 8:38 pm
I’m shocked, SHOCKED that McCain took Wisconsin.
Comment by steveegg @ 2/19/2008 - 9:05 pm
I hope she wins Wisconsin. Although I will be surprised if she does. I was out today pounding my friends to vote for her (we have open polls) and I think I lost some of them in the process. XD
I just pray that we don’t end up with that train wreck liberal Obama as the nominee. I’m so afraid that (unlike Hillary) he will be liked by the population and get his way with Congress.
Uggh
Comment by Zach @ 2/19/2008 - 9:21 pm
That margin is vital; the 26 statewide delegates are proportional (as are the 48 district-level ones). If the 55-43 exit poll holds, Obama should take 15 of those 26.
Comment by steveegg @ 2/19/2008 - 9:23 pm
A few days ago, I wrote a post on Michelle Obama and her remarks made in a speech at UCLA. I commented that her remarks about her country and the American people were negative in tone. I also pointed out a few of her statements which I felt were appropriate for criticism. What was not in that article was Michelle Obama’s comment a few days ago in front of a Wisconsin audience, a comment that has caused even more criticism.
In this speech, Obama told her audience that it is only now-for the first time in her adult life-that she has felt proud of her country (adding that it is not just because her husband “has done well”, but that she sees a “hunger for change” in the American people.)
Excuse me?
Already, Barack Obama’s campaign manager, David Axelrod, has attempted to put a spin on this, claiming that Mrs Obama’s words were not well formed and misunderstood. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t wash. The words were very clear. Michelle Obama attended Princeton and the Harvard Law School. She is a professional woman in her 40s. Articulation is not one of the lady’s weaknesses. When you add this comment with the comments made at UCLA, as well as previous negative comments about life in America, then a question arises in the public’s eye as to her attitude toward her country.
Cindy McCain’s reaction was simple and to the point; she stated publicly today that she has always been proud to be an American.
Many people who know Mrs Obama are jumping to her defense and insisting that she is, indeed, a patriotic American. That may be so, but I think it is incumbant for Mrs Obama to come out publicly and clarify her remarks. It is not in the Obamas’ interest to let this question linger or grow. Michelle Obama is two steps away from the White House as our First Lady. If her pride in her country is open to question, I don’t think she and Barack are going to make it.
gary fouse
fousesquawk
Comment by gary fouse @ 2/19/2008 - 10:00 pm
Something to keep an eye on - the 3rd and 7th District Pubbie returns (scroll for them). The district-level delegates (3 per) are winner-take-all by district, and the numbers so far are close:
3rd (30% in) - McCain 46%-44%
7th (36% in) - Huckabee 47%-46%
Comment by steveegg @ 2/19/2008 - 10:21 pm
A solid, a liquid, or a gas? Who knows? I do!
It’s a gas. I’d say hot air from below the waist.
Hope that Obama has a clue some day. Hope that he knows enough to change his own underwear. Hope that when we change presidents, it isn’t this gas bag.
Comment by Jay In Md. @ 2/19/2008 - 10:47 pm
The crowd seems to be getting bored/tired as the speech goes on - that’s what happens when you give speeches to a crowd that has a significant number of people with short attention spans.
There are two types of Democrats. Hillary Democrats are incapable of understand a position on an issue if it cannot be made to fit on a bumper sticker.
Barack Obama Democrats, on the other hand, think that bumper stickers are as long and tedious as War and Peace. The only word they can understand is change…….
Comment by Mwalimu Daudi @ 2/19/2008 - 10:53 pm
McCain takes Washington State; don’t have the time to go through those numbers.
Random Wisconsin numbers:
1st Congressional Dem - Obama 29,789, Clinton 29,638 (49% reporting)
3rd Congressional Pubbie - Huckabee 14,824, McCain 14,423 (74% reporting)
7th Congressional Pubbie - McCain 15,791, Huckabee 15,780
Projected Dem delegate take from Wisconsin - Obama 42, Clinton 32
Comment by steveegg @ 2/19/2008 - 11:19 pm
The Dem party is nothing but bumper sticker slogans.
Come on y’all, repeat the five second sound bites over and over and over and ov……….
Comment by Jay In Md. @ 2/20/2008 - 12:31 am
I have just concluded that the Obamas are just as narcissistic as the Clintons, except that they say “you” when Billary says “me.” It’s still all about them. The only time Michelle is really proud of her country? Her husband runs for President. Yeah, I wish I had a spouse to run so I could stop being ashamed. Okay, not fair - the alternative to being really proud isn’t only shame. I’m not always ashamed. Some of the times I’m just sorta proud. Kinda.
But what is infuriating me most of all is the constant talk of doom coming from the Dems. I don’t believe the Republicans ever engaged in it when out of power - sure, they said they could do better than the incumbent, that the country was going in the wrong direction, but they never claimed it was worse now than it had ever been. Do Hillary and Bill and Barak and Michelle really believe that nonsense? More to the point, do the voters? Can people really look at their current situations and say “Oh, yes, it’s worse now than ever in my life?” That’s not just wrong, it’s stupid.
Today’s Dems are the equivalent of the John Cleese character in Holy Grail who shouts “She turned me into a newt!” The difference is that there everybody stopped and stared because it was obviously untrue. At these rallies and speeches, everyone’s drunk the Kool-Aid and nods along. “Yes, we’ve all been fatally killed to death by the evil BusHitler and his minions! Plus, a dingo ate my baby!”
The kid says, “Mom, I’m right here…”
Mom shrieks, “Oh, my poor dead baby! I swear on your memory that your death shall be avenged!”
Kid: “Mom, you’re creeping me out.”
Worst of all are the sick masturbatory Obama assasination fantasies from the left. Electing Obama will prove we’re moved past our racist history, but he needs to be killed so they can be proven right that we’ve never left our racist history behind.
As imperfect as McCain is, he’s the only grownup still running. The Clintons are too greedy and amoral to have power again, the Obamas are too one dimensional.
Comment by Steve Skubinna @ 2/20/2008 - 1:53 am
That is an excellent point Steve. As much as I dislike McCain, there’s no doubt in my mind that he is indeed an adult, and a serious minded person. I can’t say that about either of the Democrat candidates.
Comment by Severian @ 2/20/2008 - 8:35 am
FYI, you’re wrong about WA state. 51% of the delegates come from popular vote. The balance came from the caucuses. We had the popular vote on the 19th and McCain won it. Also interesting, you had to sign a party oath, stating which party you voted for. That statement is public record, from what our auditor told us.
Comment by Teri Pittman @ 2/20/2008 - 6:28 pm