Election eve poll watching

Posted by: ST on November 3, 2008 at 9:21 am

Well, the final numbers are rolling in and on a national level, most polls are showing that Obama is ahead beyond the MOE, but state-level polling, the most important to watch, shows a tightening in several battleground states, suggesting tomorrow may not be a runaway for Barack Obama.

If you’re a poll junkie, Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com, as always, are must-bookmark sites to reference for the absolute final numbers that come in before tomorrow.

CNN’s got a list of poll closing times for each state, which will come in handy tomorrow night as we wait for the results to start rolling in. Keep in mind that Florida, Indiana, and Alaska have two time zones, so don’t look for any projections for them until after the final polls close in the central time zone areas of each of those states. Most likely, though, by the time we get to Alaska, it won’t matter what the results there are.

Two states to watch for early on as the first polls close: NC and VA. NC’s polls close at 7:30 PM, and VA’s close at 7:00 PM (both ET). If both of those states go for Barry O, it will likely be an extremely disappointing night for Mc supporters. If Mc manages to win one of those two, and pull out a PA win (polls close in PA at 8 ET), it could potentially be a game changer and we’ll be up for several hours trying to find out who has won. Fast facts: 41% of NC’s voters have already voted. Voter registration here is 46% D and 32% R. The highest turnout percentage we’ve had in this state goes back to 1984, at 69%.

Anyone else experiencing a case of butterflies in the tummy today?

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12 Responses to “Election eve poll watching”


  1. T-Steel says:

    I’m no poll junkie at all and don’t believe them. Anyone that does not believe that Obama could lose is kidding themselves. Yes McCain made campaign mistakes but Obama has done the same.

    And let me touch on the whole “white folks changing their mind in the booth” angle (I hate the Bradley effect name), so what. If a white man or white woman goes from Obama to McCain in the booth, it’s there choice whatever their reason. Just like black folks have thrown 96%+ to Obama, it’s their (our since I’m a black dude) choice.

    See, I’m not going to roll in the racism slop. I was the victim of REAL and VIOLENT racism as a teenager. And it was white folks that came to my aid. One of them (who I’m friends with) is voting McCain/Palin. So I guess I need to slap “racist” on them? Please. Now, contrary to what some say, Senator Obama himself has never said a vote for McCain is a vote for racism. But I’ve sure heard some Obama supporters of all colors say so. Stop it.

  2. Anyone else experiencing a case of butterflies in the tummy today?

    More like the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach I used to get before final exams :-& , but I know what you mean, ST.

    I think people work themselves up into a tizzy paying too much attention to polls that come out almost hourly — and there are more this election year than there ever have been. Forget the minute details and concentrate on two things: the state-level trend is for McCain-Palin, and Obama regularly finished under his polling numbers in the primaries. The key states are within the margin of error, so we have a good shot.

    That said, I’m making no predictions. At least, to publicly: I don’t want the gremlins to hear me and decide they have to mess things up. =:)

  3. Great White Rat says:

    T-Steel, you and I may not agree on much, but for what it’s worth, you’ve been a voice of intelligence, class, and moderation throughout this campaign. I’m sure I’m not alone in saying you’ve won my respect.

    If the polls and most pundits are right and Senator Obama is the next president, I pray he has the wisdom to surround himself with men and women of your outlook and sense, and take their counsel often. I’ll be much more optimistic about America’s future if he does.

  4. jbw says:

    Not butterflies, more like condors.

    That said the recent IBD poll shows it a 2pt race with close to 9% undecided. So the race is winnable, however how many McCain supporters will stand in line to vote or in rain (in NC)to vote if they believe the race is over.

    The MSM will have a lot of splaining to do if this becomes a very tight race.

  5. Lorica says:

    Amen, I agree with GWR, T-Steel. It has been a joy to read what you write. I especially like hearing about your Grand Father. I have no doubt that he is a very Godly man, and I would love to sit with him and just listen. – Lorica

  6. Nina says:

    The reason he is NC is because that’s his only chance to flip a state as well as in Indiana with the border with Ill. I was in my house in Western NC 2 weeks ago and I have never seen so many signs in my life . They all were McCain. I was also there for 04 and I saw a few signs as compared to 08.
    I also went around the Charlotte area and was not impressed with the support. I expected the same sea of signs as in the mountains. Just an observation for what’s worth.

  7. Dishman says:

    I’ve said elsewhere…

    My prediction for final tally is 51.04% McCain, 47.53% Obama. The trailing digits are the ones that will indicate if I was right or not.

  8. T-Steel says:

    Wow. I’m a little embarrassed with all the “love”. Thanks all.

    I know I’m a center-left guy which classifies me as liberal. But I deeply respect conservative ideals. I understand Sarah Palin’s “real American” appeal. It’s alot like the Barack Obama’s “first black president and King’s Dream” appeal with black folks. So you won’t hear me bashing Palin and McCain over what they are. I just differ with them on stances. BUT I also have some bones to pick with Obama. I see flaws all the way around. But we’re human. And we feel how we feel. Some folks won’t vote for Obama ever. Some folks won’t vote for McCain ever. And that’s fine.

    And if you look at it, the fact that Obama has gotten this far is also a tribute to conservatives that have been saying that black folks have the same opportunities as whites. An Obama win (if he wins) is more of an affirmation of conservative ideals than many liberals want to think about. I’m just being real.

  9. Severian says:

    T Steel, sadly, you are a rarity among the modern Left and Democrats. I wish it were otherwise. I’ve commented on this before, but while you have differing opinions than most of us here, I feel that we could have a rational discussion, even if we never convince the other it would be an interesting and enjoyable experience. Unfortunately, many (most) of the liberals I see on conservative sites make Keith Olbermann look like a sane moderate.

    Your family should be proud of you.

  10. Helen says:

    All I can do from this side of the Pond is wish you all well. We shall be watching and hoping and praying. But I do not believe even an Obama presidency could destroy America. :)>-

  11. T-Steel says:

    Thanks Severian. I’m just tired of the “delusional” left. I’m a member of the “real” Left. And I’m not saying that to toot my own horn. The “real” Left knows that you have to work with and respect the Right. Plain and simple. For every so-called “hick” and “xenophobe” on the right, there is a so called “ghetto hood rat” and “silly utopist” on the Left. So they cancel out. :d

  12. Steve Skubinna says:

    I am sitting in Chittagong, Bangladesh right now, and have long since sent in my absentee ballot. So from here on out I am boycotting news of the election and don’t expect to go online again until Wednesday evening local time, which will be Wednesday morning in CONUS.

    I only hope that when I leave here I will not be looking forward to returning to a once prosperous nation slowly transforming itself into a carbon copy of Bangladesh… or Zimbabwe… or Venezuela. Hell, I don’t even want to come back to Belgium Mk II.

    I’ll still be an American, unless my home changes into something that casts me out.