Election Day 2009 Liveblogging (MULTIPLE UPDATES)

*This post will be continuously updated throughout the evening. Newest updates will be at the top.*

Weds. AM Update – 8:24 AM: Hoffman has conceded. Malkin has a great analysis of that race and what it means for conservatives and the GOP establishment here.

Maine has “just said no” to gay marriage. That makes 31 states who have done so at the ballot box.

In the CA-10 race, Democrat Lt. Gov. John Garamendi defeated Republican David Harmer easily for Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D) vacated seat.

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Update 25 – 11:37 PM: Just read via MSDNC’s Chuck Todd that the NY-23 race won’t be called tonight. They still have around 11,000 absentee ballots to count, which will happen tomorrow.

Ok – I really am going to sleep now. Nite nite.

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Update 24 – 11:13 PM: NBC has called NY-23 for Owens. Oh well.

G’nite, y’all.

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Update 23 – 10:50 PM: They are probably conducting a champagne toast at the Charlotte Observer as this city has just elected a Dem for Mayor for the first time in 20 years. Not that it’ll be much different from our previous mayor, who in a lot of ways was a Republican In Name Only.

The AP has (once again) called the NYC Mayor race for Bloomberg. Narrow margin of victory, though, if the results hold up (+3K?).

I’m gonna step away from the computer for a bit. The NY-23 race is still close but Owens has been ahead the whole night. Keep checking this link for the latest updates from that race. The polls in CA close at 11 ET. This link will have the results from that race.

Whether Hoffman wins or loses, the big story of the night is that Obama and the Dems are losing Independents big time. The proof is in the exits. A Hoffman win would just be icing on the cake. If I’m not back here by 11:30 with an update, g’nite, y’all.

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Update 22 – 10:10 PM: Huge: The AP has just projected Christie to win NJ.

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Update 21 – 10:01 PM: Hearing that multiple news outlets are taking back their projection that Bloomberg will win the mayor’s race in NYC.

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Update 20 – 9:58 PM: Here’s a link for the results from the CA-10 race.

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Update 19 – 9:45 PM: Here’s another (better) link for results from NY-23.

NYC Mayor Bloomberg has, of course, been projected to win re-election.

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Update 18 – 9:25 PM: Here’s a link for election results out of NY-23.

Here’s the link for results for NJ again. Christie’s in the lead w/ 3 % reporting but I hear some big Dem precincts are getting ready to report. Precincts for the deceased to be reported … at midnight. Stay tuned.

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Update 17 – 9:20 PM: Breaking: “Machine glitches may delay vote reporting in four St. Lawrence towns” (NY-23).

The Hill is also covering the NY-23 race. I’m still looking for a voting results link.

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Update 16 – 9:01 PM: The polls in NY have now closed.

Here is a link to Maine’s election results, where the big ticket item is whether or not to reject their new pro-gay marriage law.

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Update 15 – 8:47 PM: Fixed the NJ results broken link. Thanks to ST reader GWR for the heads up.

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Update 14 – 8:17 PM: Here’s how the liberal Charlotte Observer is reporting the big mayoral race here: “Foxx leads in early returns” … but that’s after only 1% of the vote (the early vote).

Foxx, as you might have guessed, is the Democrat.

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Update 13 – 8:09 PM: Per Major Garrett – “Fox calls VA LG race for Bill Bolling and VA AG race for Ken Cuccinelli. Only 3rd time in Commonwealth history Rs sweep.”

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Update 12 – 8:00 PM: Per Hotline, “According to early exit poll data released by CNN, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) leads Gov. Jon Corzine among indie voters, 58-33%. Indies make up 27% of the electorate thus far today.” Obama won indies statewide 51-47%.

Here’s a link to check for results in NJ, where the polls have just now closed.

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Update 11 – 7:57 PM: Fox and the AP is calling VA for McDonnell. Wow!

Polls are getting ready to close in NJ.

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Update 10 – 7:39 PM: Polls close in the NY-23 race at 9 PM, FYI.

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Update 9 – 7:31 PM: Are indies moving to the GOP in VA? Sure sounds like it:

But the real difference is among indies. Obama edged McCain among VA indies, 49-48%, in ‘08. This year, McDonnell has a 60-39% lead among indies.

Deeds is also underperforming among young voters when compared with Obama. Obama won voters under 30, 60-39%. Deeds only leads this group 52-46%. These voters also did not turn out as they did last year, when they comprised 21% of the electorate. This year, they made up only one in ten voters [STEVEN SHEPARD]

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Update 8 – 7:26 PM: Here’s a link to check the numbers as they come in in the VA Governor’s race.

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Update 7 – 7:24 PM: Hmmm. “The Intrade Watch – It’s been going Corzine in recent hour(s).” (via K.Lo)

Shep Smith’s revised his earlier comments on a projection in the VA Governor’s race to “sometime this evening.” Alrighty then.

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Update 6 – 7:18 PM: Bloomberg’s spent a record $100 million of his own money to keep his seat as NYC Mayor (per Fox).

Scozzafava is still on the ballot in NY-23, BTW.

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Update 5 – 7:10 PM: Shep Smith on Fox keeps teasing about a call coming from Fox News “within minutes” on the state of VA. C’mon already!

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Update 4 – 7:01 PM: Polling guru Nate Silver (D) posts the final polling averages going into today’s elections, along with his predictions. He’s got the GOP winning in NJ, VA, and NY, Dems winning in CA-10, and Maine voters affirming the ‘right’ of gays to marry.

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Update 3 – 6:55 PM: Early exits are starting to trickle in. Supposedly, a majority of voters in NJ and VA said Obama wasn’t a factor in their vote. The economy was the most important issue in both states.

FYI – “Polls close in VA at 7 p.m. EST, while voting continues until 8 p.m. EST in NJ.”

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Update 2 – 6:52 PM: Predictably, the WH is downplaying What This All Means for future elections. What, has Axelturf seen some troubling internal numbers coming out of today’s key races?

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Update 1 – 6:38 PM: Ben Smith is reporting high turnout in Maine, where voters are voting on whether or not to repeal a new law that makes gay marriage legal.

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6:20 PM: I’m just now getting home and starting to get caught up on all the Election Day 2009 news. I see the AP is now onboard with the belief that today’s elections in NJ and VA (governor) and NY (NY-23) are referendums on Obama’s clout – or perhaps lack thereof:

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama’s political clout was on the line Tuesday as Virginia and New Jersey chose governors in contests that could serve as warning signs for Democrats about the public’s mood heading into an important midterm election year.

[...]

One year after Obama won the White House in an electoral landslide and Democrats expanded their majorities in Congress, much of the focus was on Virginia and New Jersey, where Democratic control was in danger despite hefty campaigning by Obama himself.

The outcomes were sure to feed discussion about the state of the electorate, the status of the diverse coalition that sent Obama to the White House and the limits of the president’s influence on the party’s base of support — as well as on moderate lawmakers he needs to advance his legislative priorities.

Strange. Just a couple of days ago, here’s what they were saying about today’s elections:

WASHINGTON – For Republicans, an election win of any size Tuesday would be a blessing. But victories in Virginia, New Jersey or elsewhere won’t erase enormous obstacles the party faces heading into a 2010 midterm election year when control of Congress and statehouses from coast to coast will be up for grabs.

It’s been a tough few years for the GOP. The party lost control of Congress in 2006 and then lost the White House in 2008 with three traditional Republican states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — abandoning the party.

So even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party’s own fundamental problems — divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation.

The GOP would overcome none of those hurdles should Republican Bob McDonnell win the Virginia governor’s race, Chris Christie emerge victorious in the New Jersey governor’s contest, or conservative Doug Hoffman triumph in a hotly contested special congressional election in upstate New York.

So, er, if I’m reading both articles correctly, GOP wins tonight would be “warning signs” for Obama and the Democrats, yet the GOP would essentially be meaningless because they “still have a long way to go” to overcome “hurdles.”

I sure as heck wish the AP would make up their minds.

As to turnout news, Jim Geraghty’s got several reports on what turnout is looking like in NJ, VA, and NY. Just keep scrolling. If you’ve voted today in the so-called “bellwether” races, please post about your experience in the comments section.

As for predictions? ST reader Anthony has gone on the record:

For today’s elections, I’m predicting two out of four for our side: Virginia is a landslide for the Republican for governor and Hoffman comfortably wins NY-23, while the Democrats easily win CA-10 and steal (literally) the win in NJ.

Longtime readers know about my reluctance on making political predictions (I’m not very good at it), but just for laughts I’ll say that the VA governor’s seat returns to the GOP, the Dems keep the Governor’s mansion in NJ (by hook or crook), the Hoffman/Owens race will be very close, with Owens winning in a squeaker, and the CA-10 race goes to the Dems.

What sayeth you?