US Senate – NV watch: Rothenberg changes race to “Lean Takeover for the GOP”

Since Chris Dodd announced he was exiting the Senate stage left after this year, Harry Reid has slithered to the top of the list of most vulnerable incumbent Democrat Senators this year. New polling from The Rothenberg Report shows more troubling numbers for the Majority “Leader”:

New polling confirms that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is mired near 40% in general election ballot tests against all potential opponents, even those voters know nothing about. It will be extremely difficult for him to pull out a win, as Sens. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and John Sununu (R-NH), and more recently New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), found out.

Reid’s most recent controversial comments don’t help because they keep the story focused on him, rather than on his opponents. Given Reid’s current standing with voters, he should be viewed as a slight underdog for reelection, which is why we are moving this race from Toss-up to Lean Takeover for the GOP.

Their polling also shows Coakley ahead of Brown in what they call a ” statistically significant lead” – but they believe the final numbers will be close enough to cause the Democrats some sleepless nights in the months ahead. On the other hand, Rasmussen’s latest polling in the MA Senate race shows Brown closing in to within the MOE (he gets 47% to Coakley’s 49%).

Lastly, add another Senate race to your “one to watch” list. One that not many are talking about but could be a possible GOP pick-up is the Delaware Senate race between former Delaware Governor and current US House Congressman Mike Castle (who has already declared) against Delaware AG and son-of-the-VP Beau Biden (who hasn’t declared he will run but who is expected to). Polls taken late last year for that potential match-up have given Castle the edge. Don’t get overly excited about Castle, though. He’s considered a “moderate” Republican in the House, and has the ACU rating to prove it. Delaware is blue state, after all. Still, it would be nice to have the seat formerly held by Joooooooe Biden as a feather in our collective caps. Not only that, but the MSM would poop in their pants in reporting on the loss of this seat – esp. if it came in conjuction with several other House and Senate Dem losses in November.

7 Responses to "US Senate – NV watch: Rothenberg changes race to “Lean Takeover for the GOP”"

Anthony says:

January 12, 2010 at 8:06 pm

More bad news for the Biden family: Hennessy agreed to pull the ads for their cognac campaign starring that debonair playboy, Joe Biden: LINK
Serfer62 says:

January 12, 2010 at 8:11 pm

The RNC is unable to send money to Brown or Reeds rival since all available funds went to Scuzzyflava, Spector & Cristie…the rest steele wasted
Chris in NC says:

January 12, 2010 at 8:21 pm

Rassmussen is big. He’s truly unbiased and strives for accuracy and is usually dead on. So if he shows a creeping in favor of Brown, then the democrats better get their ballot stuffing ready to go because they’ll need it.
Mwalimu Daudi says:

January 12, 2010 at 9:13 pm

Still, it would be nice to have the seat formerly held by Joooooooe Biden as a feather in our collective caps.

The trouble is that the GOP would be stuck with Castle for some time. Think Arlen Specter if you want a vision of the future. Or Lindsey Graham. Or Olympia Snowe. Or Susan Collins. Or Richard Lugar. Or Ahnauld Schwarzenegger. Or Lamar Alexander. Or Kay Bailey Hutchison. Or John McCain. Or ….. well, you get the picture.

If “moderate” Republicans were actually, you know, moderate, then conservatives would be more enthused.

I suggest conservatives save themselves future headaches by finding someone other than Castle to vote for. It’s time to think long term instead of settling for the evils of lessers like Castle.
Sister Toldjah says:

January 12, 2010 at 9:52 pm

MD, the problem is that until conservatives can successfully sell conservatism in blue states then the likelihood of getting a lot of true conservatives in office those states is not good. It can be done, but it’s an uphill battle – and one that can only be won if:

1) conservative leaders in these states consistently stay front and center in the middle of state and national debates on key issues to get the message out, and

2) when/if the right conservative candidate comes along who knows how to sell traditional conservatism in areas where moderates and liberals typically prevail.

1 is already being done, but you don’t see a lot of conservative candidates running up North because they don’t think they can win because they don’t have big support networks and typically don’t raise a lot of money. It’s the same situation in reverse for liberal Democrats in the South. Doug Hoffman didn’t lose NY23 because he was a terrible candidate. He lost it because in the end the voters in that district preferred a more moderate candidate than he was. Had he had a few more weeks/months to sell himself and conservatism, he might have pulled it off. How often do we see this happen up North, though? Unfortunately, not often enough.
Sister Toldjah says:

January 12, 2010 at 10:20 pm

BTW, congrats to your Cowboys, MD
LC Gregory says:

January 13, 2010 at 9:49 am

Couple of points:

1. Whatever happens, we won’t be stuck with Castle very long. He turns 71 this year, and voters only like to re-elect the REALLY old guys (Thurmond, Byrd) when they’ve been there for all the voters’ lives.

2. RNC has MUCH more money than DNC does. And Brown has made the DNC blow a cool million of it on a can’t-lose seat in Mass. In that sense, he’s already been a big win. But with the video of last night’s shoving episode, right in front of Coakley, on the reporter who humiliated her with a reasonably simple question on Afghanistan, Coakley is on the verge of turning radioactive. This may be the single biggest meltdown gaffe I’ve seen since Clayton Williams’ stupid rape joke in the 1990 Texas Governor’s race.

I don’t know how conservative Brown is, but c’mon – it’s Massachusetts! He really is pretty much the best we could hope for up there.

As conservatives, we can console ourselves all we want about the great silent, sleeping majority out there that Any Day Now is gonna rise up and restore the constitution and slash the welfare state. That “majority” has been slumbering for the most part for 80 years or so. So, we take what we can get, put our ideas into practice, and when they work, we get converts. That’s the work of building a movement – and a nation.

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