Election eve: Your final thoughts

You’ll be hearing plenty from me tomorrow, but I’d like to hear from you tonight. As we’re into the final hours of election eve, what races will you be watching closely tomorrow? There are lots out there, but we all have seats in particular we’re keenly interested in following.

Anyone willing to go out on a limb and make some predictions as to how many seats the GOP will pick up in the House and Senate? I’ve heard as high as 70 from Jim Geraghty, but that seems rather on the high side. The Cook Political Report puts the range at between 50-60. I think a more realistic number is in the 40-45 range. The Senate we won’t gain control of, IMO, but I see the GOP picking up 5 seats there.

Did you vote early? I didn’t – will head out sometime mid-morning tomorrow make my voice heard at the ballot box. After that, it’s marathon blogging and tweeting the rest of the day.

So talk to me. What’s on your mind this election eve?

22 Responses to "Election eve: Your final thoughts"

Marinaman says:

November 1, 2010 at 10:20 pm

I think Frazier beats Perlmutter in the Colorado 7th.:d:d
Phineas says:

November 1, 2010 at 10:46 pm

Well, you can imagine I’m watching the California races carefully. Not only governor and senator and various propositions, but Attorney General: the Democratic nominee is SF DA Kamala Harris, who’s a left-wing tool and has been a disaster of a prosecutor. AGs have a lot of power, and it’s essential that Steve Cooley beat her.

Nationally, I’m keeping an eye on Bawney Fwank vs. Sean Bielat in the House and Reid vs. Angle in the Senate. I want to see both Fwank and Reid go down.

Ew. That was a bad choice of words.

As for predictions, I’m forecasting +65-70 in the House and +10 in the Senate for the Rs. Yes, I think we’ll take the Senate. Almost all the polls are showing an unheard of break by the independents for the Republicans.

And, if they do, it’s up to us to hold their feet to the fire and make sure they don’t screw up.
Warren Crocker Herrick says:

November 1, 2010 at 10:51 pm

As a Vermonter I’m mainly interested in our governor’s race. We have an entitled, elitist Democrat (Peter Shumlin) who thinks it’s his turn to be governor running against an Air Force Reserve Colonel (Brian Dubie) who’s been Lt. Governor for 8 years. The liberal Vermont media has been working for Shumlin who has almost all of the union endorsements. Vermont went 67% for Obama. Even so Dubie is in a dead heat with his ethically challenged opponent who at one point promised to never sleep if elected.
Beyond that, I’m interested in Sharon Angle, Meg Whitman, Tom Tancredo, Christine O’Donnel, John Dennis, the defeat of Prop 19 in California, and pretty much any race where the outcome means that Conservative America wins.
Frank says:

November 1, 2010 at 10:59 pm

One huge reason I can’t bring myself to vote for Alex Sink (FL Governor’s race)is the conflict of interest she has between overseeing the state’s pension fund investments as state Treasurer, and being married to Bill McBride, the Tampa attorney who ran against Jeb Bush in 2002 for Governor. He’s also chairman of the board of directors for Hyde Park Investments LLC, one of the companies the state invested the retirement funds with! I just found out this little gem tonight. She hasn’t tried to BS her way out of it, but she certainly hasn’t gone out of her way to publicize this cozy little arrangement.

I am still not crazy about Rick Scott, but he has my vote now.
Great White Rat says:

November 1, 2010 at 11:00 pm

ST, the Gallup generic ballot is still giving the GOP a 15-point advantage, which is unheard of. If that materializes, Geraghty’s estimate may turn out to be on the low side.

As it is, I’m more optimistic than you, but less than Geraghty. I think the final tally in the House will be 234-201 for the GOP. The Dems will hold the Senate by 51-49.

If you’re looking for early indicators, I’d say check the Senate races in PA and CT. If McMahon wins CT, or even comes within 5 points, it’ll be a very good night for the GOP. If she’s crushed by 20 points or so, the Dems will do better than expected. In PA, if Pat Toomey can win by 10 points or more, then the Dems are in deep trouble. Anything less than a 4 point win will mean all the last-minute fearmongering by Duh-1 has helped.

Also, my own House district -latest polls have ex-Philadelphia Eagle tackle Jon Runyan with a slight lead over the incumbent Democrat. My district tends to be a swing district, so I’ll be interested in seeing if Runyan ‘beats the spread’.
Susan says:

November 1, 2010 at 11:57 pm

Except for my local California state assembly district GOP candidate, I am extremely disappointed in the GOP candidates in California. I consider one candidate little more than an opportunist carpetbagger a la Hillary Klinton, others made their fortunes from their schmoozing with Wall Street which we know is corrupt, not to mention that they are trying to buy their seats. The sitting Dems make me puke but this is one election where I have left some of the ballot blank. Voting for “less evil” just doesn’t work.
Wayne says:

November 2, 2010 at 12:07 am

We voted 10 days ago. No voting booths in Oregon.

Everyone ignores us, but I am hoping Huffman beats the uber-liberal Wyden. Dudley should win the governorship.

My take is that the polls are wrong. They way understate what is going on. They are assuming 2008 Democrat/Republican split. We will get a better sense. People are reluctant to make bold predictions for fear of being disappointed.

I will go out on a limb and say what I really think. Some surprises. GOP take 9 senate seats (losing Alaska because of Lisa), and will be in a extended count/recount in two more states with charges of voter fraud. The GOP also takes 77 house seats.

The left will be depressed and in shock and a bit slow to react to just what this means. many will drop out of politics all together, much like what happened when Goldwater lost in 1964. Look for a couple of defectors in the House also. Biden wont like his new job as deciding vote in the Senate. He will see it as just pre-empting Obama’s veto. Hillary will come out of hiding and run in the primaries against Obama, who like Carter will just ride out his term as a lame duck.

Hillary will be the final touch to the massacre in 2012, and Obamacare gets repealed.

The Audacity of Hope :=)
Chris says:

November 2, 2010 at 12:26 am

The race I am watching is the Pallone/Little race. Pallone is so smug and out of touch, that I hope Anna Little pulls off the upset. He has actually been running ad’s saying how he is working for his constituents by helping pass Obamacare, Financial reform and a ban on off-shore drilling. The 6th district deserves a lot better than Pallone.

Runyan is also going to be interesting. However, unlike Little, I think his chances of winning are very good.

Overall, I say the Republicans pick up 66 seats in the House, and 10 in the Senate (California as the 10th seat). It’s going to be a good night.

The enthusiasm that I have seen for Republicans in a fairly blue part of the country, and a lack of enthusiasm for Democrats, has been very telling. And I think we are on the eve of a historic night. I would not be surprised if Republicans even win 80-85 seats, and 11 in the Senate.
Hawkins says:

November 2, 2010 at 12:28 am

I hate to say it, I think we lose the close ones in the Senate–Rossi, Miller, Angle

I think Christine O’Donnell’s race gets called super early to try to help those close west coast races out.

I’m fairly certain they steal it from Rossi again.

I think California gets the politicians it deserves in Boxer and Brown.

I think despite great gains on lower levels, because the high profile ones lose, the Tea Party gets dismissed.

I hope I’m wrong
Dave B says:

November 2, 2010 at 12:44 am

Mark my words. All these polls that show O’Donnell, Fiorina, Miller, and Whitman losing are skewed to give the benefit of the doubt to the Democrat or in the case of Alaska the Democrat alternative. I can’t conrol voter fraud but I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there’s no way ANY organization could accurately project what’s going to take place today. How could they? I support Beilat in Massachusetts and if someone asked me I’d tell them I wasn’t sure or was voting for Barney Frank. I don’t think I’m the only one out there that doesn’t want to show my hand before election day. If O’Donnell loses in Deleware it will be voter fraud and not voter wishes. If Miller loses it will be the same. Meg Whitman is going to lose to a career politician this year of all years? Fiorina will lose fare and square to a radical left wing tax and spend liberal this year of all years? I don’t think so. There may be “blue” states and “red” states but they’ll never be able to predict pissed off voters that want to nail the bastards responsible for ruining our country and taking all of us down. Scott Brown? Remember? Wait and see.
Betty Ann says:

November 2, 2010 at 1:13 am

I’m making a list of happy moments for tomorrow and refuse to let any disappointments along the way dampen what is going to be a great day.

I’m starting with Nikki Haley and Tim Scott in SC. Watching Alan Grayson go down in Florida. Bursting with pride over Rubio, etc. From sea to shining sea.
Phineas says:

November 2, 2010 at 1:22 am

Betty, I’m really looking forward to Haley, Scott, and Rubio winning, too. All three are great candidates.
Eric Eikenberry says:

November 2, 2010 at 2:38 am

My prediction? I can see the wave from my house.

Or an even better quote; “I see dead political careers.”

Unfortunately, it breaks against the AZ/CA border directly to my east, and fails to wash away the political crud in LA and San Francisco… I do dream of the day Republicans hold both the House and Senate again, and heaven help them if they screw it up and fail to repeal that ObamaCare crap!

I will be voting R, with the exception of John Chiang, who, last election, was the only accountant running for the position of CA Comptroller. I have to say he’s done a great job non-politically, in a non-political position. Bravo, Mr. Chiang, bravo! He gets my vote again no matter who the R is running against him. The rest of the Dems in office I’ll happily flush.

And I’m actually voting FOR Prop 19, for several reasons. First, potheads hate it because they’ll have to pay taxes on pot. Too damn bad suckers! You want out hang out, smoke weed, and discuss liberal utopia, fine by me, but your high is going to help pay for the mess you create in government in CA! People buy alcohol for tailgate parties all the time and don’t sit around grumbling about how “the man” is tring to stick it to them with taxes on their beer. The second reason is that local governments will be free to create their own zoning laws for growing, with one city already enacting a law which will cost a casual grower with a 5′ by 5′ personal plot over $15k per year! Heheheheheh! Of course, no one will pay it, but if every municipality enacts a similar law, it’ll be funny to see the heads explode in faux-rage!! I luvs me a good comedy!
Tom TB says:

November 2, 2010 at 5:30 am

Here (CT) it’s a referendum on 0bama. Blumenthal is running with his endorsement, as is Himes, a freshmen member of the House who somehow drank the zero’s sugar drink. I’ve already voted, so I can go to work with the talk radio on in the background, and enjoy the show…
mike191 says:

November 2, 2010 at 5:58 am

The voting fraud that will be employed by Democrats will make election results impossible to determine.THE COURTS AND LAWYERS WILL PLAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AMERICA IN 2011.
Election Day Open Thread says:

November 2, 2010 at 6:54 am

[…] – 65/9 Sister Toldjah – 40-45/5 AJ – Says look to VA Polipundit – 66/ Peter Wehner – 73/10 Paul […]
PE says:

November 2, 2010 at 7:07 am

I’m living in SC, home of the great DeMint and soon to be Governor Haley. My wife and I are looking forward to being a part of a huge Republican tidal wave in this State. Rooting for Toomey against his lying rival Sestak in PA. Believe Miller will win in AK. Hope the dishonorable Blumenthal loses in CT, but, in any case, the majority of voters there and in DE will get what they ask for.
Tango says:

November 2, 2010 at 7:08 am

….Pinky Reid’s goin’ down – decisively!
Paul says:

November 2, 2010 at 7:36 am

Haley will beat Sheheen, for Governor, in South Carolina…
Kate says:

November 2, 2010 at 7:51 am

Here is PA… I hope we get a Republican governor in Tom Corbett.

Toomey…as senator.

That said…how many absentee ballots were cast illegally and will there be a good turn out for those who elected Obama? Can’t say if many Obama supporters will vote in a non-presidential year. I hope they don’t because it was their uneducated vote that gave us such a disaster of a president and unscrupulous congress.

Of course, this is PA the land of the democrat and union thug,too, so I am not getting my hopes up too high.
Zippy says:

November 2, 2010 at 8:13 am

I can’t even look, but will roam around a bit online today to see what’s going on. I just hope that people are angry enough and concerned enough to vote the bums out.
Mike G says:

November 2, 2010 at 9:30 am

:)Chet Edwards TX CD17 is on his way out! Pelosi lapdog thrown under the bus when he became a clear loser.

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