Will the GOP hang on to Congress next month? And other misc. election notes

Election 2006 With polls showing the Dems poised to take control of Congress, one magazine – Barron’s – is predicting that the R’s will hold on to their control in Washington. But just barely. Drudge has a snippet of the subscription-only content from the Barron’s site. If any of you have a subscription to Barron’s magazine, please email me or post a synopsis of the article in the comments section of this post. Would love to read more about this. Ok, on to what Drudge quoted:

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON’s claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years — and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don’t see it.

Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

Developing…

Sounds WAY overly optimistic – but we’ll see.

On a related note:

—- Fred Barnes writes in this week’s Weekly Standard on the importance of conservatives voting next month rather than staying home to ‘teach the GOP a lesson.’

—- Newsweek notes a new poll that supposedly shows that teh GOP is losing its Evangelical base.

—- The Hartford Courant doesn’t sound too happy about the fact that Senator Joe Lieberman is getting a lot of money from the GOP.

—- The NYT reports that Democrats are daring to believe they will win next month.

—- Nancy Pelosi likes the sound of “Madam Speaker” – read more about this from yesterday’s Pelosi puff piece in the LATimes. The WaPo joins in on the Pelosi puffery here.

Update: Heh.

Read more thoughts on the Barron’s prediction and the November elections in general via Hugh Hewitt, McQ at QandO, Scott Johnson at Powerline, AJ Strata

10 Responses to "Will the GOP hang on to Congress next month? And other misc. election notes"

Michael says:

October 22, 2006 at 2:06 am

Slate is predicting the Democrats gain 13 of the 16 seats they need to take the house.
http://www.slate.com/id/2151413/
Drewsmom says:

October 22, 2006 at 6:40 am

I just don’t see the Conservatives staying home … especailly the Evangelical Christians … why would they want nancy polosi, john conyers, henry waxmann or charlie rangle running their government.
The Evangelicans are sick that foley did what he did but all the ones I have talked to are going to vote to keep this country safe if nothing else.
Pehaps this will teach the do nothing pubs that we mean business and they need to actually get something done this next term …. but I know they ain’t staying home.
Tom TB says:

October 22, 2006 at 7:07 am

I’m going with my 86 year old Mum and vote in the elementary school I attended, and when the R majority is secured in the House we will tell our Congressman that he owes us!
archtop says:

October 22, 2006 at 10:07 am

I’ll make a prediction that voter turnout among ** democrats ** will be suppressed on election day. Why? Because the MSM has sold them on the myth that the dems have it won already! If that is so, why bother to vote? Why put up with the long lines, inconvenient locations, lack of parking, etc.?

In the end, the vote will turn on traditional “get out the vote efforts” and incumbancy (I think undecideds will break for the incumbant, all else being equal).

Finally, remember how poorly the “pundits” did in 2002 and 2004. We must ask ourselves this time around, why will they be any more accurate in 2006?
Lorica says:

October 22, 2006 at 10:15 am

Amen DM and AMEN Tom!!!! When the Repubs keep control of Congress we need to speak to all our Reps and Sens and let them know they work for us.

My belief is that you can oversample Dems in these polls only so long before you are in a state of delusion. I don’t see us losing control. They polls oversample Dems on average of 8%. If a race has a 6% difference between the 2 candidates, that oversampling is significant, and means the Dem is going to lose.

Then there is the great unwashed in the middle. I think those that haven’t made up their minds. I think once they get into the voting booth, they will realize that Repubs are better at keeping us safer, and keeping the economy strong, which are the top 2 concerns for Americans.

All this jubulation is just another Wellstone moment for the Dems. Been sayin’ that for months, still sayin’ it. They are overplaying their pair a deuces. – Lorica
Mwalimu Daudi says:

October 22, 2006 at 11:38 am

I’ll stick with my previous prediction of the GOP losing the House but keeping the Senate. Ironic, because IMHO House Republicans have done a better job than their RINO Senate counterparts.
Wake up America says:

October 22, 2006 at 2:00 pm

Democratic “Deliverance” Debacle

I will say though, that for me, the image of the Democrats bent over and squealing like pigs, is quite amusing.
Big Bang Hunter says:

October 22, 2006 at 3:42 pm

– I still find the most interesting aspect of this whole election cycle to be the fact that, even in an off year, when the Dems should be enjoying the usual out party slam dunk, they still seem to be struggling, this in spite of every bit of drive by MSM cheerleading and hype. That in itself would disheartening, if they ever stopped for a second to deal with reality. I can tell the way they’re burrying their heads, flooding the news front with phony skewed polls, and trying so hard to shout their way into office, they’re scared.

– Its almost as much fun watching them struggle, as watching them lose. As ST pointed out in an earlier post, they’re even gearing up their excuse’s early this time. I don’t see real conviction, I smell fear.

– Bang
Stop The ACLU says:

October 22, 2006 at 3:57 pm

The Best Analysis Of Election 2006 By Barrons

Barrons has what will be regarded as the best analysis of Election 2006:
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two wee…
Lorica says:

October 22, 2006 at 5:35 pm

Here Here Bang. Fear creates panic. These blowhards in the Dem party and the Drive by Media, thought they had the 04 elections, and I don’t have to tell you how that ended. They are going to do something stupid to wreck their chances.

I might suggest that we might lose some seats, but even that I don’t really see. Polls are such garbage to create “news” around, we know that Conservatives don’t take them on the most part. Last phone poll I got the poll taker told me it would only be 5 minutes or so. The 1st question asked me if I was pro-life or pro-choice, I said I was pro-life and he thanked me and hung up. I was still waiting for the other 4:30. Yeah these polls aren’t engineered for a specific value are they. They are a lazy mans way to gain some sort of control over the beliefs of the populace. I think if anything the people are tired of hearing what other people want them to think. It is going to back fire, and since everyone knows that the Drive By Media is in bed with the Dems, I am thinking it is going to back fire on Dems, big time. – Lorica

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