Will the GOP hang on to Congress next month? And other misc. election notes

Election 2006With polls showing the Dems poised to take control of Congress, one magazine – Barron’s – is predicting that the R’s will hold on to their control in Washington. But just barely. Drudge has a snippet of the subscription-only content from the Barron’s site. If any of you have a subscription to Barron’s magazine, please email me or post a synopsis of the article in the comments section of this post. Would love to read more about this. Ok, on to what Drudge quoted:

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON’s claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years — and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don’t see it.

Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.


Sounds WAY overly optimistic – but we’ll see.

On a related note:

—- Fred Barnes writes in this week’s Weekly Standard on the importance of conservatives voting next month rather than staying home to ‘teach the GOP a lesson.’

—- Newsweek notes a new poll that supposedly shows that teh GOP is losing its Evangelical base.

—- The Hartford Courant doesn’t sound too happy about the fact that Senator Joe Lieberman is getting a lot of money from the GOP.

—- The NYT reports that Democrats are daring to believe they will win next month.

—- Nancy Pelosi likes the sound of “Madam Speaker” – read more about this from yesterday’s Pelosi puff piece in the LATimes. The WaPo joins in on the Pelosi puffery here.

Update: Heh.

Read more thoughts on the Barron’s prediction and the November elections in general via Hugh Hewitt, McQ at QandO, Scott Johnson at Powerline, AJ Strata

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