
Good news in the war on terror, and bad news for defeatist liberals:
The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.
But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.
“I think it would be premature at this point,” a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains “the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks.” Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.
There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group’s signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a “cascade effect,” leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. “They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented,” Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group’s capabilities have been “degraded” by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.
Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of the Joint Special Operations Command’s operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity about Iraq assessments and strategy.
In other words, be cautiously optimistic. We’ve got a long way to go, and are not out of the woods yet. Nevertheless, this speaks well of our evolving strategy in Iraq, and proves once again that the surge – the one the Democrats didn’t want to see take place – is bearing fruit.
Memeorandum, as always, has a roundup of blogger reax.
Via Don Surber.
Prior:
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I heard one dem caller on c-span this morning say it was just the Post in the pocket of the President — good heavens, give me a break, most of the time the Post slams our President – these dems aren’t happy at all about ANY POSITIVE NEWS out of Iraq. They are so against victory to get their guys in the White House. It’s really depressing to me to see this happen in our contry.
If Thomas Ricks says it, believe it!
Not to be outdone by all the good news coming out of Iraq, leave it to our wonderful Congress (with it’s lowest approval rate in history) to throw some gas on the fire:
Turkish Government Seeks Authorization for Cross-Border Iraq Operation
Soooo, is this the what the democrats meant by fixing our “ailing” relationship with the rest of the world.
This would explain the Democrat Congress suddenly deciding to switch to the SCHIP debate and trot out the usual Republicans-just-want-to-kill-children meme.
Has anyone else noticed that the Washington Post isn’t as far to the left as they once were?
This is an excellent article, that does throw back in the face of certain people their stupid comments. Let’s never for get bb brained Harry saying how “the war is lost” just a few short months ago. Yes I am optimistic, but I am cautious, there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered wounded dog. We have taken the fight to the enemy and proven that we can succeed here. Now it is just a matter of everyone supporting the troops, and not just paying lip service. As far as a “Political” solution, that will come in time. Many people in this country supported the crown, until the war began, many of them changed their minds in a matter of days. I doubt seriously if humans have changed so much since then. – Lorica
Yes, it’s good news. Give the WaPo credit for reporting it at all. You probably wouldn’t find it in the NYT.
Even then…when you read the article, did you get the impression that the WaPo reporters spun this news as something that just sort of happened? And that our current stategy had little or nothing to do with it? For example, you won’t find the word “surge” in there anywhere.
Maybe it’s just me, but my spin detectors activate automatically whenever I see Karen DeYoung’s byline on a story owing to her past track record in carrying water for the Sandintistas and other left-wing thugs.
I agree GWR. It is like they have to trumpet up the “bad news” in order to keep people grounded with this good news. Why they feel the need to constantly remind us of the bad news is rather moronic. I think all MSM outlets should have a policy. If they won’t show pics of the 9/11 attacks now, then once a story is broke it shouldn’t be repeated on and on and on for the next 2 months. Phat Chance of that ever happening. – Lorica