Super Duper Tuesday: The Day After

First, the delegate counts:

On the Dem side, CNN is showing Hillary with 783 and Obama with 709. On the GOP side, McCain has 559, Romney 265, and Huck 169. The Dem totals don’t reflect New Mexico’s delegates, because that race is still too close to call, with 92% reporting and Obama with about a 600 vote lead. I don’t think any of the delegate totals reflect California yet, as their California page does have the delegate numbers attached to the candidates names – not only that, but there’s still about 5% of the California vote to count, and no one knows yet just how many delegates each candidate will get in that state, since it is not winner take all.

Fox News’ delegate count is showing Hillary with 845 and Obama with 765, McCain with 613, Romney with 269, and Huck with 190. Fox may already be dividing up California’s delegates – I don’t know at this point.

RCP’s totals are different as well. Bryan at HA has a color-coded map of who won what state. He’s showing NM in the Clinton column but as of this moment, that’s the only thing not accurate about the map (in fairness, it was probably called for Hillary by some of the nets last night at the time he made the map).

Team Obama is claiming a delegate lead, but it’s not clear this morning if that’s the case.

The delegate numbers may vary from site to site, but what’s crystal clear is that McCain can clearly be labelled the frontrunner now for the Republican nomination, while it’s still neck and neck between Hillary and Obama.

Here are some other things that I believe are very clear:

*Romney bombed badly in the South, and it wasn’t Mike Huckabee’s fault. Every contest last night in the South saw Romney finish a clear 3rd.

*Huckabee has no chance of winning the nomination, as he did extremely poorly everywhere but the South. Is he angling for a possible veep slot? If so, I’m with Mark Steyn – don’t think it’s going to happen.

*There is most definately an “enthusiasm gap” between the GOP and the Dems, and that is a huge problem. If national elections would have been held last night, the GOP would have lost and lost big. In nearly every contest, the turnout numbers were staggeringly higher for the Democrats that the Republicans, which is, I believe, an accurate reflection of the mood of the conservative electorate – which is to say, not good. John McCain is clearly winning the moderate to liberal wing of the Republican party, as well as a significant number of Independent voters in states with open primaries.

*On that same note, while the delegate count might be split right now between Hillary and Obama, it’s unquestionable that the Democratic party is an energized party hungry for a WH victory after 2006’s rout of the Republican majority. Whichever candidate wins the nomination on the Dem side will likely get the enthusiastic support of most of the supporters of the second place candidate. While McCain may wind up getting support from most of the people who dislike him now on the Republican side, that support will not be enthusiastic nor do I forsee large amounts of campaign cash coming McCain’s way from those reluctant supporters.

*And on that note, McCain’s got some big time sucking-up to do to conservatives if he wants to have any shot at a majority of their votes come election time. Mark Tapscott suggests some ideas for what McCain could do to make the base come around to supporting him. I’m not sure if it will be enough, as there is a deep-seated dislike for the Arizona Senator.

Anyone who may have forgotten why there is such a personal dislike for McCain has been reminded why over the last couple of weeks, from the debate in California where McCain repeatedly took cheap shots on Romney’s work in the private sector as well as lying about Romney’s Iraq timetables comment, to yesterday’s bogus Absolute Moral Authority Card he pulled on Romney over his criticism of Bob Dole’s email to Rush Limbaugh. McCain called on Romney to apologize for the remarks, noting that Romney “never served in the military, unlike Dole” (paraphrasing). Lost in all of that was that Romney’s actual comments, which could have been worded better, but even without that did not disparage Senator Dole’s military service one bit. This was McCain’s way of playing to the military vote, which wasn’t necessary considering he’s got a significant amount of support from the military already. Even if conservatives could move beyond their policy disagreements with McCain for the sake of winning this fall, his likability factor on a scale of 1-10 is like a negative 25, and I don’t see that changing much. He’s alienated a lot of people with his arrogant, you-owe-me attitude – including many of his Republican colleagues in the Senate.

So, as we celebrate Ronald Reagan’s birthday (born in 1911), Republicans have some soul-searching to do. And what with the enthusiasm gap I mentioned earlier, as well as the general distrust conservatives have with the guy who is in line to represent their party come election time, I’m too depressed at this point to try to persuade anybody to do anything one way or the other.

On the other hand, big-time Romney supporter Hugh Hewitt, who is no doubt disappointed about how things turned out last night, tries to get the base energized this morning with “seven reasons to support the GOP nominee.” Good luck with that, Hugh. Mark Hemingway weighs in with some related thoughts about last night as well.

————

Here’s a list of what primaries/caucuses are left. The next round of primaries could see Barack Obama doing very well.

PM Update – 1:50 PM: Here are some sobering numbers, via Time’s Swampland blog:

TOTAL VOTES CAST

Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)

Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)

[…]

Total votes cast in 21 GOP contests yesterday among McCain, Romney and Huckabee:

McCain: 43.1% (3,611,459)
Romney: 35.4% (2,961,834)
Huckabee: 21.5% (1,796,729)

For grand totals, vastly more Democrats than Republicans voted yesterday;

Democratic votes for Clinton and Obama: 14,622,822 (63.6%)
Republican votes for McCain, Romney and Huckabee: 8,370,022 (36.4%)

Put another way, the Clinton/Obama race drew 76% more voters than the McCain/Romney/Huckabee race.

[…]

Here are the numbers just for the 19 states where both parties had elections yesterday
Obama/Clinton voters: 14,460,149
McCain/Romney/Huckabee voters: 8,367,694

Or, 73% more Democratic voters than republican voters.

Ya’ll know I’m not a proponent of staying home this November, and neither is Stanley Kurtz. He makes an important point here by stressing that even if you don’t plan on voting in the presidential election, you should still go to the polls to vote in your Congressionial elections:

[…] If a Democrat wins the presidency and carries a substantial majority of congress to boot, there will be sweeping changes that conservatives may never be able to turn back. For one thing, several Supreme Court justices will quickly retire, to receive the most liberal replacements conceivable.

If, on the other hand, McCain wins the presidency, conservatives have every reason to want as large a GOP presence as possible in Congress — to help McCain confirm conservative justices (and encourage him to nominate them), and to constrain McCain on issues like immigration. (There’s a slogan for you: “Constrain McCain: GOP Congress in 2008”) It seems to me that it’s in the interests of McCain’s die-hard opponents to call just an enthusiastically for conservatives to vote for a GOP congress as they are calling for opposition to McCain. If conservatives react to the anti-McCain message by staying home, rather than voting for a GOP congress, then we truly will have shot ourselves in the foot.

Ordinarily the presidential race sucks up nearly all the air in political campaigns. That’s because the nominee usually serves as standard-bearer for the party as a whole. This year should be different. Maybe we need to start thinking of the last immigration battle as a positive model for the future, rather than an intolerable strain on the party. Maybe we need to get used to the idea that the GOP congress is there to give a President McCain help when he’s right and keep him in check when he’s wrong. If we could actually turn the anger at McCain into positive enthusiasm for a GOP congressional campaign, conservatism might just be able to save itself from the deluge we face. Again, personally, I would happily vote for McCain over Hillary or Barack. I think we need a GOP president and congress working together (and in tension, when necessary).

But if some folks absolutely refuse to consider voting for McCain, they have all the more reason to put major efforts into calling for a GOP congress. So find out who the GOP candidate is in your district. Find out their positions on immigration, campaign finance, Guantanamo, court appointments, etc. If you think they’d help a President McCain when he’s right and check him when he’s wrong, put some effort and enthusiasm into that campaign.

I understand that the GOP congressional races look bad. Many Republican incumbents are retiring, and the country wants change. Yet this situation is clearly salvageable. The Democratic congress has pathetically low public ratings. Renewed attention to the GOP congress by the disgruntled conservative base could kick-start our stalled campaign. If the big conservative voices criticizing McCain made a point of turning this dissatisfaction into agitation for a GOP congress, it could save conservatism from what might otherwise be disaster. Even if Republicans can’t get an outright majority in the next congress, just staying about even with where they are now would make a huge difference. But a Democratic blowout in congress along with a Democratic president would mean the end of conservatism for the foreseeable future (maybe longer). We can prevent that, just by not staying home.

In short, if the anti-McCain base won’t go to the polls even to vote for a Republican congress, all is lost. But if we direct our disappointment over McCain into positive enthusiasm for a GOP congress, to help him when he’s right and block him when he’s wrong, we can turn this crisis around. Staying home is not an option.

Still more on voter turnout: Via CNN: “Democrats shatter turnout primary season records.”

12 Responses to "Super Duper Tuesday: The Day After"

Baklava says:

February 6, 2008 at 11:34 am

I’ve been watching and I don’t know what to make of all this.

Huck can’t win. Romney can’t win in the South (why?) and McCain can’t win because of his sticking the finger in the eyes of conservatives on too many issues.

Personally, I’d vote for any of the 3 over Obama or Clinton. But ST is right. There is too much enthusiasm on the Democrat side.

I can imagine if I was a young voter my enthusiasm would have me voting for Obama as I remember my liberal thought days pre 1991. I was excited for Paul Tsongas.
Scott Allan says:

February 6, 2008 at 11:34 am

I’m bummed about Romney. Curse you Huckabee!! America will get what they deserve.
Leslie says:

February 6, 2008 at 12:03 pm

*On that same note, while the delegate count might be split right now between Hillary and Obama, it’s unquestionable that the Democratic party is an energized party hungry for a WH victory after 2006’s rout of the Republican majority. Whichever candidate wins the nomination on the Dem side will likely get the enthusiastic support of most of the supporters of the second place candidate. While McCain may wind up getting support from most of the people who dislike him now on the Republican side, that support will not be enthusiastic nor do I forsee large amounts of campaign cash coming McCain’s way from those reluctant supporters.

Exactly right, Sisteroo! And I’d note too that your point is opposite to the mediots, who of course want to play up race and gender differences in America, so that they can wring their hands and tell us how awful we are. I’m glad you don’t do the same.

My mind’s a blur after last night, but I remember at one point on CNN, after Bill Schneider put up his exit poll figures on the number of white men who’d voted for Obama in one of the southern primaries, one of the panelists expressed astonishment while (was it maybe Bill Bennett?) gently chided that person and said “you seem not to have spent much time in the South lately.”

If the reluctant supporters who refuse to fund McCain continue to be reluctant, he’ll have no incentive to mollify them. No candidate wins a general election by going to the extremes; they drift toward the center. And that will be especially true in McCain’s case, because that’s where his support lies. And McCain being McCain, he’s more likely to tell the Limbaughs and the Coulters to stick it where the sun don’t shine than try to appease them. McCain’s built his political career for the most part on not going on bended knee to anyone (and when he tried it briefly his campaign tanked), so I don’t think he’s going to do so now.
Baklava says:

February 6, 2008 at 12:58 pm

Can we get Fred Thompson back ?
Kimberly says:

February 6, 2008 at 1:08 pm

My hope at this point is that a brokered convention is the next step for Romney. The illusion of party unity is far past the point of attainability. If could write the scenario I would have Romney take it to the floor of the convention with Fred! or some other strong conservative as a VP pick and fight it out.

The Democrats have the super stars. They are energized in ways we could only imagine. How can we expect Republican conservative voters to be as excited about the prospect for voting for John McCain. I don’t see it.

I say go for broke at the convention because we are headed for a massive defeat in November with McCain at the top of the ticket.
Tango says:

February 6, 2008 at 1:48 pm

I have noted the enthusiasm among the Obama supporters (and their relative youth). However, history supports that when the general election rolls around, these crowds tend to vote in much smaller numbers than other constituencies.
Lorica says:

February 6, 2008 at 2:52 pm

Ya know, I am sitting here listening to some of the sound bites that Rush has, and I am getting abit perturbed. I am listening to all of these “moderates” and “independants” tell me that I shouldn’t be so unhappy about McCain. Well aren’t these the same people that abandoned us in the 2006 elections?? – Lorica
Kimberly says:

February 6, 2008 at 4:04 pm

I have noted the enthusiasm among the Obama supporters (and their relative youth). However, history supports that when the general election rolls around, these crowds tend to vote in much smaller numbers than other constituencies.

I think history is about to be broken here. Do you honestly believe that the opportunity to elect either the first woman or the first black as POTUS is going to be overlooked? The Democrats will receive record turnout in November – bank on it.
TedintheShed says:

February 6, 2008 at 4:11 pm

Ya know, I am sitting here listening to some of the sound bites that Rush has, and I am getting abit perturbed. I am listening to all of these “moderates” and “independants” tell me that I shouldn’t be so unhappy about McCain. Well aren’t these the same people that abandoned us in the 2006 elections?? – Lorica

Lorica,

This is the same thing I see, and yet the paradox here is that many of the folks that are telling me I need to support Juan McCain are on this board and claim to be Conservatives!

This is why I see many McCain supports as just being shills for the Republcian party. If you have McCain in the general election, then all I see the choice for voting between two socialist. There is no Conservative choice once he wins.
PCD says:

February 6, 2008 at 5:00 pm

Ted,

I would bet that a large number of McNuggets’ shills are just Democrats working to get the weakest opponent they can.

I know the Country Clubbers, the RINOs, and the “Moderate” Liberal GOPs want to ru(i)n the party.
Tango says:

February 6, 2008 at 9:41 pm

Kimberly: the Dems spent lavishly on programs designed to get young people (first timers) to vote in 2000 and again in 2004. The money was essentially wasted, producing negligible results.

The trend is your friend…
Chick says:

February 7, 2008 at 7:18 am

My concern with the “sit out the general election” philosophy is the dreaded M-word – Mandate.

As Kurtz notes, the negative coattails of sitting out the General will be as detrimental – if not moreso – as a Dem President.

The last true mandate for RWR. We are still feeling the effects of that mandate today. Give the Dem President 58%-60% with both houses and the ramifications will be huge and last for a generation or more.

Let the fight for a GOP Congress begin in earnest … today!

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