Election-eve poll mania and predictions

About 14 hours before voting starts in many parts of the country, and we’re seeing all kinds of new polls popping up – Memeorandum (more here) has links to the latest ones, showing gains for Dems, a surge for Jim Webb in Virginia … it’s madness right here at the homestretch.

Wanted to give ya’ll a final opportunity to make some election predictions here in the comments. I posted a few about a month ago, which I will repost now:

Lamont seems to have lost momentum in CT and isn’t polling well – I feel pretty confident in predicting that Joe Lieberman will win that Senate race 56-41 with 3% going to Schlesinger.

The race for Senator Bill Frist’s seat is tight, and Ford and Corker have been going back and forth with single digit poll leads. This one’s going to be close, but I hear Ford is campaigning well in TN as a moderate and I predict that seat will go to Democrats in a nailbiter. That’s not how I want it to go, but that’s how I think it will.

Racial politics aside, I think Sen. George Allen will hang on to his Senate seat in Virginia.

I also predicted a few days ago that the Republicans would barely hang on to the Senate, and barely lose the House.

Your turn to make predictions!

BTW, do you typically have a time that you like to vote? I usually try to get mine done first thing in the morning. And speaking of in the morning, I’ll be on Allman and Smash’s show tomorrow at 7:45 a.m. Eastern time to talk quickly about election day. I understand they’ll be having lots of bloggers on tomorrow morning, so it sounds like it’s a show that will be well worth tuning in to.

Update I: The WaPo’s “The Fix” blog has some opinions on the best political ads of 2006. Check ’em out here.

Also, remember this as you go into the voting booth tomorrow.

35 Responses to "Election-eve poll mania and predictions"

CavalierX says:

November 6, 2006 at 6:18 pm

I’m sticking with my prediction that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate by a slim margin, but as far as I can see control of the House is still balanced on a knife’s edge. I will say, however, that the Dow’s performance of late has been mighty encouraging.
Wil Robinson says:

November 6, 2006 at 6:39 pm

My prediction is that the Republicans hold both the House and Senate – why?

Because Democrats don’t have anything to run on besides “we’re not Republicans” or negative campaigning on the Foley mess, etc.

A true opposition would have a real solution for problems – the Democrats don’t have…well, you get the picture.

Having said this – I am not a conservative, but rather a true believer in world peace and the value of all human life.
CT says:

November 6, 2006 at 7:03 pm

My preduction: Republicans lose seats in the Senate and House, but still control it. Can’t wait to see the lefties at work squirm at the loss.
gahrie says:

November 6, 2006 at 7:08 pm

Reps will lose 3 in the Senate, and 12 in the House, retaining control of both. When you compare this to historical norms, this would be a tremendous victory.
stackja says:

November 6, 2006 at 7:36 pm

The US people either want chaos and vote in the Dems or stay the course.
benning says:

November 6, 2006 at 7:54 pm

Republicans add to their seats in the House and maintain control of the Senate. Why? Because anything else is sick!
Lorica says:

November 6, 2006 at 7:59 pm

Going out on a big limb here. I say Reps pick up seats in both the Senate and the House. – Lorica
I. M. Neiman says:

November 6, 2006 at 8:27 pm

gahrie: I believe you have it just about right in your numbers and analysis! I also agree with Benning that a Democrat win of either house is sickening to think about!
Baklava says:

November 6, 2006 at 8:44 pm

I predict that we will not gain or lose house seats or Senate seats. How’s that for bold?

Check out the situation with Arnold coat tails in CA with Phil Angelides basically pulling down turnout of Democrats in CA.

and the Punch Foley for Negron campaign doing well.

And the Republicans are not a one issue voter like those who are against the Iraq war who have no clue. Democrat centrists feel left out because they don’t feel strongly against the Iraq war but just kind wish the war would end as well as the bickering. They have nothing to vote FOR.
Baklava says:

November 6, 2006 at 8:45 pm

Lorica and benning, I just read your predictions. Let’s start a positive thinking club !!!
Mwalimu Daudi says:

November 6, 2006 at 8:55 pm

Predictions:

Democrats take the House tomorrow.

The Cowboys will lose to Arizona next weekend.

Next year, Democrats end-run the Constitution and remove Bush and Cheney from office by avoiding the impeachment route. Senators Chafee and Graham vote with the Democrats in this endeavor. Pelosi becomes President.

Within 5 years President Pelosi will use McCain-Feingold to outlaw blogging. In the name of “bipartisanship”, “tolerance”, and “moderation” all campaigns by Republicans will be banned. Desperate Housewives and Will and Grace will be standard PBS fare.

In 10 years rolling power blackouts will be the norm. At least one major American city will be radioactive rubble, and Democrats will suspend elections “for the duration of the emergency”. Michael Moore will win an Oscar for Best Film.

In 15 year spending on public education will surpass national defense, although 75% of all high school graduates will be functional illiterates. Europe will be an Islamist caliph. Another major American city disappears in a mushroom cloud. Scientists will warn about fossil fuels causing global cooling.

In 20 years Christianity will be illegal unless you have a state license and preach a state-sponsored theology. 90% of high school graduates will be functional illiterates, and high school campuses will be deadlier that Vietnam or Iraq. To keep parents from deserting the public school in droves, President Sheehan will outlaw home schooling and private schools.

In 25 years, America becomes an Islamist caliph. “Infidel” activities such as rock music, homosexuality, movies, Christianity, and baseball will be outlawed. The Cubs still will still not have won the World Series by then.

How are those for predictions ST?
Baklava says:

November 6, 2006 at 10:16 pm

That was hilarious. I just got a phone call and I answered, “Don’t worry I’m going to vote!”.

The lady on the other end said, “OK”, and hung up.

I laughed out loud….
Ryan says:

November 6, 2006 at 10:19 pm

I can make this prediction with confidence – my votes here in CA will amount to pretty much nothing.
Baklava says:

November 6, 2006 at 10:20 pm

You must not have seen my post Ryan. They totally matter. I’ll be voting for my Congressmen and legislatures here in CA and all the other state wide offices that are much closer than the Arnold / Angelides race.
Chuck says:

November 6, 2006 at 10:59 pm

Repubs retain senate & House.

I like Lorica’s prediction

Ryan I’m in Cali too, every vote counts! Cast it straight Repub!
Ryan says:

November 6, 2006 at 11:04 pm

I already voted – absentee ballot, straight (R).
Brian says:

November 6, 2006 at 11:08 pm

I’m thinking we lose a couple of seats in the House, but we keep control. Senate, same thing.

However, I don’t expect the matter to be settled tomorrow. I think the Dems will go to court just about every place that was close to try and challenge everything.

And already, they’re raising a big stink about so-called “dirty tricks” that Republicans might be doing. Like their hands are clean. lol
G Monster says:

November 6, 2006 at 11:25 pm

lol Brian. Ryan, your vote will count as will mine. I’m voting for Arnold. What else is on the Ballot in Cali?
Sister Toldjah says:

November 7, 2006 at 12:05 am

Good ones, all! Mwalimu, I’m especially hoping you’re right on your Dallas prediction

BTW, everyone, check out Baklava’s first guestblogging post over at Baldilock’s blog, where he posts his election day predictions.
Jeanette says:

November 7, 2006 at 12:55 am

We’ll keep both houses or have a slim minority in the House at worst. My gut tells me we hold both houses so I’ll stick with that.

I don’t know about you, SJ, but I’m worn out from all the blogging we’ve done in the run up to the election. I’m excited about our chances and can’t wait for the tallies to come in. I want to see how the bedmates for the dems, the MSM, spin this. If the dems don’t take 30-40 net seats in the House it will be considered a defeat for them.
Jeanette says:

November 7, 2006 at 1:00 am

I told you I was tired. I typed SJ instead of ST. Sorry.
Baklava says:

November 7, 2006 at 1:37 am

I did another post at Baldilocks entitled What will women do?
Ryan says:

November 7, 2006 at 2:31 am

Feinstein is of course up for re-election here in CA. I hope that Governor Moonbeam (Brown) does not end up as our AG. Tom McClintock is on the ballot for Lt. Gov.

Here’s the California Republican Party website.
CavalierX says:

November 7, 2006 at 4:18 am

>90% of high school graduates will be functional
>illiterates

Ahh, so you see an improvement, then?
sanity says:

November 7, 2006 at 8:41 am

Wow Cav, so that means according to Kerry those 90% will be in the military!
Ed Smith says:

November 7, 2006 at 9:23 am

I voted this morning about 1 hour after the polls opened – I was #11. This is a heavy Democrat area – so low turnout is good ( but lazy)!! Predictions:

House – Dems + 9
Senate – Dems + 2
Severian says:

November 7, 2006 at 9:23 am

And already, they’re raising a big stink about so-called “dirty tricks” that Republicans might be doing. Like their hands are clean. lol

This is a classic magician’s trick called misdirection. If you don’t want people looking at what one hand is doing wave the other around. So, in order to distract attention from their voter fraud Dems are complaining vocally and hysterically about voter fraud allegedly being committed by Reps. Gee, I don’t seem to recall dozens of Republicans being convicted of voter fraud from the 04 elections.
Lorica says:

November 7, 2006 at 10:15 am

Here is why I think the Reps are going to pick up seats. Basically it is all this polling data saying that the Dems are going to do very well. One, we know the majority of polling data is weighted heavily toward Dems. Two, I think the most people who vote Dem have fooled themselves into thinking that this is going to be a cake walk. Three, I don’t think the Dems due to reasons 1 & 2 are going to show up to the polls to vote. Four, I think Reps are extremely anxious about losing the majority, so I believe that those of us who vote Rep, are going to be out in mass. I could be wrong, but I just don’t think so. There is only so much anti-war fervor out there and it will only get you so far. – Lorica
Big Bang Hunter says:

November 7, 2006 at 11:12 am

– So Lorica, you don’t think PEW will be able to decide this race any better than it did in ’04. If the faux “exit” polls, and “generics” flop this time, the DNC should demand it’s money back!

– Bang
Big Bang Hunter says:

November 7, 2006 at 11:14 am

– What would be hilarious, and true poetic justice, is if the Dems come up one seat short – Liebermans!….Bwahhahahahahahaha

– Bang
Big Bang Hunter says:

November 7, 2006 at 11:16 am

– My predictions – Dems take 12 seats in the house, coming up a few seats short. 2 seats in the Senate, 2 seats short.

– Pelosi has to send the new drapes back.

– Bang
Big Bang Hunter says:

November 7, 2006 at 11:41 am

– ST, I’m pretty sure you’ve posted this as one of your fav Election returns sites, but here it is again just in case anyone missed it.

– Bang
Sister Toldjah says:

November 7, 2006 at 11:43 am

Yep, it’s in my election day open thread – in one of the updates. I don’t know if he’ll be updating returns, though.
Lorica says:

November 7, 2006 at 1:07 pm

Nope I don’t think PEW has been honest with their polling in the weeks before the elections. I think if you over sample Dems in your polls by as much as 16% and the Dem is only ahead by 10%, you are going to create a false impression in your Dem voter, and they are just going to say, “Hey, I really can’t be inconveinenced right now. We are going to win, I saw it in a poll just last week.”. We shall see, is it just hopefulness on my part, or is it just my ability to comprehend Joe Average Dem voter. – Lorica
Big Bang Hunter says:

November 7, 2006 at 1:22 pm

– Ok….the Dem dirty tricks machine is already in action…. Kean headquarters in NJ….all the locks have to be changed…someone brokes keys off in the locks making them inaccessable… and so it starts….

– Bang

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