The Oregon and Kentucky primaries (UPDATE 6: OBAMA SPEAKS)

Election 2008**Bump to the top. This post will stay on top the remainder of the evening and will be updated frequently. Newest updates will appear at the top of the post. Newer posts will appear below this one.**

Update 6 – 10:11 PM: Obama speaks.

Update 5 – 9:27 PM: CNN is projecting Obama to win in Oregon based on their estimates (since OR does the mail in vote, polling outfits can’t do exit polling except by phone).

Marc Ambinder, meanwhile, cuts through the Clinton spin on the superdels.

Obama will be speaking in Des Moines, IA shortly. No doubt this was staged for maximum effect, considering it’s where he got his first (somewhat surprising) win. I probably won’t watch it. I find his speeches distracting because of the misrepresentations and lies he frequently slips into them. I heard via CNN he’ll have the teleprompter set up, so this one is probably going to be a long one.

Update 4 – 8:15 PM: Hillary takes the stage in Louisville, KY. Prepare for the argument to the superdels to be made. Wishes Sen. Kennedy well.

Brings up the popular vote. Implies MI and FL should be counted. Says party needs to be united in the fall against Republicans.

Dang. She’s winning 34% over BO right now with 69% reporting.

Brings up “shared prosperity.”

Talks about “2,210 delegates required” – that’s not the official number right now: it’s 2,026.

Update 3 – 7:48 PM: Bob Beckel (Dem strategist) was on Fox just now saying that if Hillary wanted a VP slot, she could try for it at the convention, because technically you can pick both a pres. nominee and VP nominee at a convention (according to him). Wow, what a convention that would be! ;) Don’t see it happening though as BO will probably make his choice before then.

Update 2 – 7:01 PM: Polls have closed in Kentucky. Fox is calling the race for Hillary, saying she’s performing in exit polls over Obama by almost 2-1.

Update 1 – 6:08 PM: I erred slightly earlier on poll closing info for Kentucky. It’s in two time zones, and some polls closed at 6pm ET. Here are some of the first exits to come out of Kentucky.


Voters in Oregon and Kentucky get their turn today to weigh in on the Democrat race for the nomination. 52 pledged delegates are at stake in Oregon, and 51 are at stake in Kentucky. Kentucky polls are already open, while Oregon’s system is a mail by vote system, the only one of its kind in the US. Here are some other Oregon primary facts. The Politico posts 5 things to watch tonight in Kentucky as well as Oregon. Polls close in Oregon at 11 Eastern time, and 7 Eastern time in Kentucky.

Obama is expected to win easily in Oregon, while Hillary is expected to take Kentucky without much of a fight. So in terms of the “big winner” tonight, it will really be more of a draw than anything else. Expect Hillary to use her Kentucky victory in her battle with the DNC and superdels to show that she can win over voters who won’t vote for Barack Obama.

The big story of the night will be the delegate “milestone” Obama will likely reach this evening – that milestone being that he will have a majority of the pledged caucus and primary delegates in his corner, based on the 2,025 number, which (as it stands right now) does not include Florida and Michigan delegates.

As far as predictions go, the FiveThirtyEight blog, which came closer than anyone of picking the winning percentages the night of the NC and IN primaries, has Obama winning by 13 in Oregon. Didn’t see one for Kentucky.

Bookmark these links to watch the vote totals as they come in:

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